Outlook for the next 5 years in drug innovation
The original assumption in predicting where we will be in five years, is the assumption that we know where we are right now. The assumption that we are in the midst of a ten year crisis is conjecture. The assumption that we can predict the future is just silly. The most scientific thing we could do at this stage of the drug industry would be to define where we are, why we succeed and fail, and what we can do to weed out more of the Cargo Cult.