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Monday, April 04, 2011

Retraction Watch, Omeros, and Confounding Factors

Retraction Watch is a scientific gift. Those who value the truth now have a source to help them through the minefield of scientific publications.

Our own blog here, The CCS, follows the retraction of scientific ideas. The ideas manifest themselves as biotech companies. We think of each company as a torch that illuminates a cargo cult airport. The airport I speak of most often is Seattle Biotech since I live here. Our cargo is a drug approval.

Today we report on Omeros. The torch has grown dim.

Omeros (NASDAQ: OMER) said today that its most advanced program in clinical trials, a combination of generic drugs designed to reduce pain and swelling in patients undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, has failed. There was nothing to sugarcoat here—the drug, OMS103HP, failed to meet its goals in the third and final stage of clinical trials.


Of course we don't just sit back and judge a company based on whether or not they succeed. That is what investors do. We want to know why they failed. Due to the secrecy of modern day science, we don't get the full story. But we do get some hints as to what they think may have gone wrong.

Omeros blamed confounding factors in the studies, which means that if patients improved, it could have been caused by some other reason than the Omeros drug.


Sounds like they made their mistakes before the trials began way back in 2004. Statistics was the problem? How can this be?

The confounding factors in the Omeros clinical trials are what we want to know all about. Omeros is the victim of the confounding factors, and now their investors are as well. We believe that real science can prevent these things from happening. Like Retraction Watch, we believe there is value in negative results. The team at Omeros and their investors are hurting. They took a gamble and lost. Now they are going to put all of the negative behind them and forge ahead. Now is the time however for those in the negative sciences to start their research. If allowed, what would a couple of cub reporters for the Science of Negative Results turn up? The secrecy behind the trial data alone would merit a book. Imagine a series of scientific and business avenues all interlocked that led to the demise of the Omeros lead candidate. Which ones hurt the most? Who made the decisions. Did the molecule really act on its target as advertised? Did the statistical set up of the trials make sense? Many questions could be asked. The answers would serve the industry. Will they be asked? Should they be asked?

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