It has been a long time since I have turned to this blog to get some thoughts put into words. The blog was always a way of venting to myself. I didn't care if anyone read the blog. I was only trying to put into words the torment of working in a group think environment. Within this a handful of failed biotechnology companies and our industry I was always thinking... just the wrong thoughts.
Today I am tormented by the pandemic and the conversation around the virus. The first thing to point out is the virus itself. It is a Corona virus. It is called SARS-Cov-2 and is related to SARS-CoV (Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus). SARS-CoV was the virus that led to the SARS pandemic in 2003. Here is a chart that compares the two:
| SARS-CoV | SARS-CoV-2 |
Transmissibility R0 | 2·4 | 2·5 |
Incubation period | 2 to 7 days | 4 to 12 days |
Days between symptom onset and maximum level of infectivity | 5 to 7 days | 0 days |
Amount of patients with mild illness | Low | High |
Amount of patients needing hospitalization | Most patients (over 70 percent) | Few patients (20 percent) |
Amount of patients needing intensive care | Most patients (40 percent) | 1 in 16,000 |
Risk factors for severe illness | Increased age, underlying illnesses | Increased age, underlying illnesses |
The RNA sequences that have been published all seem to be in agreement. A complete genome sequence from Ranjit Sah et.al. https://mra.asm.org/content/9/11/e00169-20 was >99.99% identical to two previous published sequences. How does this sequence compare with SARS-CoV?
The SARS-Cov sequence was published in 2003 by the CDC. It is 29,727 bp (29811 bp in SARS-Cov-2) in length. Using the BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) on the NIH page we come up with 82% homology.
The beginning of thinking about a problem is to gather the facts. We have lived with Covid 19 for a long time now. We have several vaccines. We have known knowns and known unknowns. And we have the problems associated with Cargo Cult thinking.
The unknown origin: Why does it matter? The normal genetic drift that leads to strain variations is useful information. In the chart above we see a few of the consequences of genetic changes. Should we be worried? What can we do to prevent negative outcomes (?) and so on.
The known danger: We know that most people who die from Covid 19 exceed the age of a normal life span. The sickest are mostly obese. The danger is not great among healthy younger people. We are therefore attempting to protect the vulnerable by not getting and spreading the virus.
HOW DO WE BEGIN TO UNDERSTAND SARS COV 2?
The problems of Cargo Cult Science among our professional science class had come home to roost. We are told to get vaccinated and to social distance. Wear masks and avoid crowds. It appears as though our highest ranking scientists have never thought about viruses before. They are ubiquitous. We need viruses to survive. How then do we now expect to eliminate the viruses we don't like?
Like everyone else, I don't have the answers. I have questions and those are considered taboo in the Cargo Cult. We should be using science to debunk claims that seem wrong. We should reject the main stream media sources and we should not take NIH/NAID/CDC... scientists to be any better than ourselves. Seek knowledge.
