I've been typing away on this ridiculous forum of a blog since 2006. I'd left my latest job in biotech and I was at a loss to explain my life. Were these people honestly conducting what they thought science was or were they running a scam? I couldn't tell. So I started writing as a form of therapy. Why not, it was free.
It's 2010. The company I left back in 2006 is gone. They set a record on Wall Street for the rate of decreasing market capitalization. Impressive indeed. I moved onto another company that hasn't crashed yet, but in many ways could be more of a Cargo Cult than the previous company. I used the metaphor of fires along a cargo cult airport to track the comings and goings of the biotech companies. The fires have been burning out left and right since I began. Big ones like Zymogenetics, gone. Small ones like Homestead from Accelerator Corp. whom you never hear about. They just burn up a couple million bucks and they go away.
Tonight we have the Biotech Is Back forum taking place at the Path headquarters downtown. If you haven't seen this place let me set the stage. Paul Allen decided to "build it and they will come". He started building lab space, high rise apartments and high end commercial space to accommodate the well paid science community. In his "corridor" you will find a plethora of brand new spaces. As a fan of all things urban I am impressed and saddened that it is wasted on biotech. But there is a well funded high rise that houses the headquarters of PATH. Bill and Melinda Gates fund PATH, a non-profit organization that helps poor folk in third world places, including those in the good old USA. That doesn't mean the employees don't profit. They are living large. The ergonomic chairs in their cubicles are worth more than two years of the average salary of the people they are setting out to help in Africa. Tonight PATH will be hosting a forum where 4 of the few remaining biotech CEOs are going to try and make the case that biotech in Seattle is going to come roaring back.
I do not fault the sponsors. They are trying to make money. That's what good Americans do. I wish Biotechnology was into making money honestly for the sake of myself, our vendors and the people who need useful biotech products. But the forum, I fault! It's about bullshit. Biotech in Seattle is not back. It's the same people with the same tools trying to solve every problem in the same old ways.
In my next post I will compile a list of the companies that were here in the last ten years. You will see what happened and you can decide if biotech is back or not.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Daily dose of drug cuts risk of HIV for gay men: study
A total of 2,499 men at high risk of HIV infection participated in the study, which was conducted at 11 sites in Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and the United States. Half of study participants received the PrEP pill, while the other half were given the placebo.
In all, 64 HIV infections were recorded among the 1,248 study participants chosen at random to receive the dummy pill, while 36 HIV infections were recorded among the 1,251 participants who got the drug.
These are the last two paragraphs from an article from CTV News, the Canadian Press.
I've also cut and pasted their headline and used it as my own. The headline indicates that there is a risk of HIV and the drug "cuts" that risk for gay men. What the last paragraph shows is that less gay men in the drug group of the trial contracted HIV than in the placebo group. The "risk" in the headline is about the risk of being infected by the virus. This shouldn't be confused with the risk of dying of AIDS because you are HIV positive.
A true test would be unethical. 2500 HIV negative people are split in two groups just as they were in this trial (placebo vs drug). They are allowed only to have sex with men from a group of HIV positive men. The sexual encounters must be done without condoms.
The truth about the trial however is that the men were allowed to randomly have sex as they saw fit. Condom use was not measured. This issue appears to have been dealt with by providing both groups with safe sex education. The measurement of whether or not each participant took his daily pill was done on the honor system. Daily use was not true to the design of experiment but dealt with after the fact to the advantage of the pharmaceutical company paying for the trial.
And I could go on. What was the diet between groups. What were their incomes. Where did they go for sex? Then you take just the ones who contracted HIV. The list of variables is beyond our comprehension. Yet a fair trial would be unethical. Science is up against a whole lot when it comes to this kind of research. In the end all you have are two groups. In one, 5% get HIV. In the next, 3% get HIV. Surprising?
Game Changer!
Friday, November 19, 2010
RNAi and Roche
The RNAi world took a big hit this week. Had they listened to the lowly CCS they could have saved over 800 million dollars! Why am I not a high paid adviser in this industry.
I know of a couple people who swear that gene therapy works. I know of no one who says that RNAi works. Keep in mind, the people I know wear white lab coats at work and speak of results that they have seen first hand. The people I mostly poke fun at wear Friday business casual and work in offices. They conduct science in board rooms with white boards and powerpoint presentations as their only tool. They need a certain story to be told and they direct people to go and get certain results.
We still have a couple RNAi fires lighting our runway up here in the Northwest. Marina, formerly MDRNA, has been raising money in dribs and drabs for the past several years. Why did they take the RNA out of their name? Next is AVI Biopharma who work with RNA anti-sense, which is different than RNAi, but equally is certain to fail. Why get nit-picky with BS?
The problem I've always had with RNAi is that it is too easy. A PHd need only select a drug target then pretend that it has been knocked out. Hitherto you had to create a knock-out mouse which is hard to do and expensive. This bailed out a whole generation of lazy scientists. It reinvented old gene therapy farts who were at end of their wasted careers. It said to the world, we have a new tool box for fighting disease. You open that tool box and their is one hammer in there that they whack every problem with. Where are we now?
Finally, a major player has closed its books on this foolish pursuit. Others will have to come to the same conclusion, but this is still biotech. They will fight for their professional lives until the money dries up. But remember, you can trust the CCS. The RNAi cargo planes will never come.
I know of a couple people who swear that gene therapy works. I know of no one who says that RNAi works. Keep in mind, the people I know wear white lab coats at work and speak of results that they have seen first hand. The people I mostly poke fun at wear Friday business casual and work in offices. They conduct science in board rooms with white boards and powerpoint presentations as their only tool. They need a certain story to be told and they direct people to go and get certain results.
We still have a couple RNAi fires lighting our runway up here in the Northwest. Marina, formerly MDRNA, has been raising money in dribs and drabs for the past several years. Why did they take the RNA out of their name? Next is AVI Biopharma who work with RNA anti-sense, which is different than RNAi, but equally is certain to fail. Why get nit-picky with BS?
The problem I've always had with RNAi is that it is too easy. A PHd need only select a drug target then pretend that it has been knocked out. Hitherto you had to create a knock-out mouse which is hard to do and expensive. This bailed out a whole generation of lazy scientists. It reinvented old gene therapy farts who were at end of their wasted careers. It said to the world, we have a new tool box for fighting disease. You open that tool box and their is one hammer in there that they whack every problem with. Where are we now?
Finally, a major player has closed its books on this foolish pursuit. Others will have to come to the same conclusion, but this is still biotech. They will fight for their professional lives until the money dries up. But remember, you can trust the CCS. The RNAi cargo planes will never come.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Dendreon Stats Revisted
Provenge has traveled a rocky road. In 2007 it was recommended for FDA approval but not approved. Controversy surrounded the FDA decision. In 2010 it was approved.
On Wednesday the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, are going to review the drug.
Just last week a government health agency that studied Provenge on Medicare's behalf found only "moderate" evidence that it works. In the clinical trial that led to FDA approval, statistics on 512 patients demonstrated a median survival of a little more than two years, or four months longer than patients in the control group.
The question for Medicare is not about the cost of the drug. Their job is to assess the efficacy and safety of Provenge. In the background is the projected sales peak of nearly $2.3 billion in 2016. If Medicare gives Provenge a thumbs up, the stock price could increase 60% in 12 months. Based on the history of the reception of the data touting Provenge, I would say Medicare approval is a toss up. Add in the money to be made and the lobbying efforts of Dendreon, I would buy up as much of this stock as you can afford.
On Wednesday the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, are going to review the drug.
Just last week a government health agency that studied Provenge on Medicare's behalf found only "moderate" evidence that it works. In the clinical trial that led to FDA approval, statistics on 512 patients demonstrated a median survival of a little more than two years, or four months longer than patients in the control group.
The question for Medicare is not about the cost of the drug. Their job is to assess the efficacy and safety of Provenge. In the background is the projected sales peak of nearly $2.3 billion in 2016. If Medicare gives Provenge a thumbs up, the stock price could increase 60% in 12 months. Based on the history of the reception of the data touting Provenge, I would say Medicare approval is a toss up. Add in the money to be made and the lobbying efforts of Dendreon, I would buy up as much of this stock as you can afford.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Biotech's Back Bullshit
Are Cargo Cult leaders honest, liars or bullshitters?
What is the motivation behind the "Biotech's Back in Seattle" forum.
In order for a Cargo Cult to survive you must convince people that the airplanes will arrive. The tribesmen are easy to convince. In the case of Seattle there are plenty of people around with the proper credentials to don a white lab coat and convince investors that there is a company engaged in research. You can find them working at Starbucks or the grocery store or even at the few remaining biotech firms up here. The investors are the real problem.
I want to point out the difference between what a tribesman thinks is in the Cargo planes and what an investor thinks. The tribesmen think that it will be great science that leads to lifelong prosperity making useful drugs. Investors think it's cash.
What does it take to get investor money? It takes bullshit. Investors in biotech have been notoriously susceptible to bullshit. That is because they are bullshitters too. They know bullshit when they see it. And when they think it's being done to the proper standards, they invest. Just check out the portfolio of the FrontPoint hedgefund.
Imagine the potential losses you could incur by running an investment firm with nothing but Seattle Biotechnology companies. I know what you're going to say, "you have to diversify". The point of this horrific financial scenario is to put yourself in the shoes of the target audience at Biotechs Back in Seattle. How much of what they are going to say will be bullshit and how much will be an honest assessment of the state of Seattle Biotech? Just look at the title of the forum! It's bullshit!
What is the motivation behind the "Biotech's Back in Seattle" forum.
In order for a Cargo Cult to survive you must convince people that the airplanes will arrive. The tribesmen are easy to convince. In the case of Seattle there are plenty of people around with the proper credentials to don a white lab coat and convince investors that there is a company engaged in research. You can find them working at Starbucks or the grocery store or even at the few remaining biotech firms up here. The investors are the real problem.
I want to point out the difference between what a tribesman thinks is in the Cargo planes and what an investor thinks. The tribesmen think that it will be great science that leads to lifelong prosperity making useful drugs. Investors think it's cash.
What does it take to get investor money? It takes bullshit. Investors in biotech have been notoriously susceptible to bullshit. That is because they are bullshitters too. They know bullshit when they see it. And when they think it's being done to the proper standards, they invest. Just check out the portfolio of the FrontPoint hedgefund.
Imagine the potential losses you could incur by running an investment firm with nothing but Seattle Biotechnology companies. I know what you're going to say, "you have to diversify". The point of this horrific financial scenario is to put yourself in the shoes of the target audience at Biotechs Back in Seattle. How much of what they are going to say will be bullshit and how much will be an honest assessment of the state of Seattle Biotech? Just look at the title of the forum! It's bullshit!
Friday, November 12, 2010
Liquidity
It's really about money. Without money we can't live our lives. We could work in science but it would just be a hobby, like monks who contribute to scientific ideas such as genetic order or new math formulas.
As we eagerly await the Biotech is Back summit here in Seattle, we get the news that Ikaria has pulled the plug on their IPO.
We're coming back with the ferocity of a small African Gazelle.
As we eagerly await the Biotech is Back summit here in Seattle, we get the news that Ikaria has pulled the plug on their IPO.
We're coming back with the ferocity of a small African Gazelle.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
MBA Students Cheat?
One of the most interesting interviews from the report on the Central Florida University cheating scandal is at the end of this GMA report. where the student doesn't see why it's a big deal. More interesting than getting caught is A) the percentage of the class cheating and B) the attitude of the interviewee. It's not important. Everyone does it. He even claims that 100% have cheated on a test at one point or another.
I've said before what a waste it is to spend so many years of your life learning natural science only to end up a businessperson. To think the PHd in Biochemistry ends up in a group like these students is a shame. So I propose a new degree. Lying Cheating Bastard, LCB. My name is John Smith, LCB.
The degree is about bullshitting. Liars tell lies. Bullshitters don't care if they are telling the truth or not. They say what needs to be said, just like the students who found a way to pass a course at CFU. The LCB candidate must take courses all throughout the University system and at least pass them. Failure is not an option. After the course is completed the LCB graduate student must write a report on how he/she did it. Studying hard and learning the material is an option but more points are given for working around such a system. Of course, the LCB will be Big Pharma management material.
200 out of 600 students were caught cheating, thanks to the powers of statistical analysis. Ha! I've told the story about the car dealership where 11 out of 20 salesmen tried to steal money from a mentally retarded man who came in bragging about large sums of cash he kept at home. The percentage of dishonest people, all willing to act on the first opportunity to cheat, was astonishing. 33% of MBA candidates acted upon this opportunity to cheat. Could this number have been higher? How many of the other tests given to this population were cheated on? What do these students do once they enter the corporate world? Do they seek ways to continue tipping the scale in their favor? Statistically you would have to believe so.
The LCB idea might not take off. Let's just think of 1/3rd of MBAs as LCBs. The other 2/3rds probably won't make it in business.
I've said before what a waste it is to spend so many years of your life learning natural science only to end up a businessperson. To think the PHd in Biochemistry ends up in a group like these students is a shame. So I propose a new degree. Lying Cheating Bastard, LCB. My name is John Smith, LCB.
The degree is about bullshitting. Liars tell lies. Bullshitters don't care if they are telling the truth or not. They say what needs to be said, just like the students who found a way to pass a course at CFU. The LCB candidate must take courses all throughout the University system and at least pass them. Failure is not an option. After the course is completed the LCB graduate student must write a report on how he/she did it. Studying hard and learning the material is an option but more points are given for working around such a system. Of course, the LCB will be Big Pharma management material.
200 out of 600 students were caught cheating, thanks to the powers of statistical analysis. Ha! I've told the story about the car dealership where 11 out of 20 salesmen tried to steal money from a mentally retarded man who came in bragging about large sums of cash he kept at home. The percentage of dishonest people, all willing to act on the first opportunity to cheat, was astonishing. 33% of MBA candidates acted upon this opportunity to cheat. Could this number have been higher? How many of the other tests given to this population were cheated on? What do these students do once they enter the corporate world? Do they seek ways to continue tipping the scale in their favor? Statistically you would have to believe so.
The LCB idea might not take off. Let's just think of 1/3rd of MBAs as LCBs. The other 2/3rds probably won't make it in business.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
The Logic of Picking the Perfect Ice Cream
This is my favorite analogy of the mindset that has plagued my biotech life.
How do you know what the truth is?
How do you know what the truth is?
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
Location Location Location
Bio Nebraska: Inspire, Invent, Innovate... inNebraska
This is not a criticism, like the usual post. I like the idea of people in a place like Nebraska thinking about science and technology. Most people think they are all farmers. The CCS thinks that farmers are quite often smarter and much more honest than the average PHd. They have a lifestyle that allows for this. The PHd has pressure to publish and has way too much competition to maintain employment. The farmer wakes up each day and does what he has always done. It's a sustainable lifestyle versus publish or perish.
Why do biotechnology companies have to reside in San Diego, Boston or North Carolina? Inspiration and innovation occurs in the mind. You have in the United States a plethora of resources from educational institutions to wealthy locals to invest in ideas in all 50 states.
The creative mind of the corporate world however is such that success occurs only specific geographical locations. Yet Warren Buffet set up shop in Omaha, not Wall Street. What if he had chosen Wall Street? Berkshire Hathaway makes money by investing in organizations that make money, regardless of their location. Why is Biotech different? Why does the CEO of Dendreon worry that he won't be able to attract top talent if the location of Washington state scares them away due to its tax structure? Is the talent he seeks that superficial?
Where do ideas come from? How do you apply them to real world needs? The Cargo Cult Airports that I speak of are in the minds of individuals. They believe their degrees and those of their colleagues lead the way to innovation. The Cargo Cult Airports are people in boardrooms talking about what is needed but not specifically how to get it. They know where, who, why, when but not how.
This is not a criticism, like the usual post. I like the idea of people in a place like Nebraska thinking about science and technology. Most people think they are all farmers. The CCS thinks that farmers are quite often smarter and much more honest than the average PHd. They have a lifestyle that allows for this. The PHd has pressure to publish and has way too much competition to maintain employment. The farmer wakes up each day and does what he has always done. It's a sustainable lifestyle versus publish or perish.
Why do biotechnology companies have to reside in San Diego, Boston or North Carolina? Inspiration and innovation occurs in the mind. You have in the United States a plethora of resources from educational institutions to wealthy locals to invest in ideas in all 50 states.
The creative mind of the corporate world however is such that success occurs only specific geographical locations. Yet Warren Buffet set up shop in Omaha, not Wall Street. What if he had chosen Wall Street? Berkshire Hathaway makes money by investing in organizations that make money, regardless of their location. Why is Biotech different? Why does the CEO of Dendreon worry that he won't be able to attract top talent if the location of Washington state scares them away due to its tax structure? Is the talent he seeks that superficial?
Where do ideas come from? How do you apply them to real world needs? The Cargo Cult Airports that I speak of are in the minds of individuals. They believe their degrees and those of their colleagues lead the way to innovation. The Cargo Cult Airports are people in boardrooms talking about what is needed but not specifically how to get it. They know where, who, why, when but not how.
Friday, November 05, 2010
Clinical Trial Fraud
MannKind's former senior director for regulatory affairs John Arditi is alleging that the company hid "scientific misconduct" from regulators. In a lawsuit filed Sept. 16, Arditi said he uncovered irregularities at Russian and Bulgarian trial sites, noting that patients at the Russian site were recorded as having the same blood pressure at several visits--something that is highly unlikely. In Bulgaria, patients were said to have been treated with the drug despite the fact that Afrezza packing slips indicate the drug had not yet been delivered to the site. Both issues points to the possibility of fake patients. The former exec further alleges that he was fired after bringing the issue to the company's attention.
Read more Clinical trial fraud accusations rock MannKind .
Mannkind is in for a fight Biotech companies never want to get into. Standard practice is to prepare a severance for the departing Cargo Cult Scientist with a clause that prevents him/her from exposing the Cargo Cult secrets. This one should be fun to watch.
Like Aubrey Blumnsohn, people with integrity and inside clinical trial information can be a real pain in the arse. The two cases differ in the kind of information that is meant to be hidden but they are the same in the struggle to tell the truth. You begin to question yourself, "does this matter"? Your superiors are saying that it does not and perhaps you are not smart enough to understand. You dig deep and try to prove yourself wrong. Your career is at stake. Does it matter? You can't prove yourself wrong. Not only do you think your concerns matter, but you think most rational people would agree.
In a sane world clinical trials be completely transparent. In the Cargo Cult you can still have fake patients. Once discovered you can't bring it to the attention of upper management without negative effects on your career. No one ever said leaving the Cargo Cult would be easy.
Read more Clinical trial fraud accusations rock MannKind .
Mannkind is in for a fight Biotech companies never want to get into. Standard practice is to prepare a severance for the departing Cargo Cult Scientist with a clause that prevents him/her from exposing the Cargo Cult secrets. This one should be fun to watch.
Like Aubrey Blumnsohn, people with integrity and inside clinical trial information can be a real pain in the arse. The two cases differ in the kind of information that is meant to be hidden but they are the same in the struggle to tell the truth. You begin to question yourself, "does this matter"? Your superiors are saying that it does not and perhaps you are not smart enough to understand. You dig deep and try to prove yourself wrong. Your career is at stake. Does it matter? You can't prove yourself wrong. Not only do you think your concerns matter, but you think most rational people would agree.
In a sane world clinical trials be completely transparent. In the Cargo Cult you can still have fake patients. Once discovered you can't bring it to the attention of upper management without negative effects on your career. No one ever said leaving the Cargo Cult would be easy.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Herb and Dorothy Vogel
There is a very interesting documentary about two people who are the polar opposites of me. Herb and Dorothy were two art collectors living in NYC. Dorothy was a librarian and Herb worked at the post office. They used her salary to pay the bills and his to buy art. Their collection is now kept at the National Gallery of Art.
I enjoy art and visiting museums. I've even created a few paintings myself. But I don't understand how anyone can assess art. It seems to me that these types of judgements are too subjective. Yet Herbs lifetime postal salary was spent on art that he and his wife deemed to be important. In the end others agreed with them. Many of the artists who they supported early in life went on to become famous. Did they know something special or were they two eccentrics who got lucky?
I say I'm the polar opposite because I want to focus on things that can be quantitated. Paintings are simply good or bad. You can look at them, learn about them and enjoy them. A professional career deciding where a modern art painting falls on the genius to crap continuum would be almost purely nonsensical. By using science one can understand the world and even predict certain outcomes.
So how did Herb and Dorothy become famous? I think their NYC location was a part of it. They met artists you just don't meet in Cleveland or Omaha. Devoting an entire blue collar salary for investment increased their odds. In the end, they had their own special brand that lead people to believe in them.
I think of the Vogels like I think of a venture capitalist who focused on Biotechnology. Most of these types failed miserably. A few made it big. Who do we remember?
I enjoy art and visiting museums. I've even created a few paintings myself. But I don't understand how anyone can assess art. It seems to me that these types of judgements are too subjective. Yet Herbs lifetime postal salary was spent on art that he and his wife deemed to be important. In the end others agreed with them. Many of the artists who they supported early in life went on to become famous. Did they know something special or were they two eccentrics who got lucky?
I say I'm the polar opposite because I want to focus on things that can be quantitated. Paintings are simply good or bad. You can look at them, learn about them and enjoy them. A professional career deciding where a modern art painting falls on the genius to crap continuum would be almost purely nonsensical. By using science one can understand the world and even predict certain outcomes.
So how did Herb and Dorothy become famous? I think their NYC location was a part of it. They met artists you just don't meet in Cleveland or Omaha. Devoting an entire blue collar salary for investment increased their odds. In the end, they had their own special brand that lead people to believe in them.
I think of the Vogels like I think of a venture capitalist who focused on Biotechnology. Most of these types failed miserably. A few made it big. Who do we remember?
Friday, October 29, 2010
Empty Buildings
So up to 90 percent of medical science reports could be B.S. One of the consequences is of course that your doctor could be following a cargo cult science when he/she tells you to take your pills. But we like to look at the airport as well.
Here in Seattle we had a push to start up a biotech hub. We wanted to compete with Boston and North Carolina and San Diego and the bay area. We built expensive buildings with lots of lab space to accommodate that science that is 90% false. How did it pay off?
Empty promises bring empty buildings. Contrast our biotechnology investment with the investment in politicians. 3.7 billion! Giving politicians money produces desired results. Maybe you want the government to add an earmark to a bill that will provide you with the money you need to create a Laurance Welk museum. It's been done. You can't pay a politician to cure cancer. Nor can you expect a biotech to do it. It hasn't been done.
Imagine taking a walk today through the empty spaces available for biotech. The smell of new construction, the lights turned off, no people around, and you keep walking for miles. What happened? 1100 Eastlake was completed in early 2009 — "just around the time the world fell apart," Blume said. The world didn't just fall apart in 2009. Biotech has been falling apart since it began. The success of a few companies fooled investors into thinking easy money was to be made. But the data of failed companies as a direct result of bad science has escaped the wealthy. Their starting to come around to the truth. It's a cargo cult airport!
Here in Seattle we had a push to start up a biotech hub. We wanted to compete with Boston and North Carolina and San Diego and the bay area. We built expensive buildings with lots of lab space to accommodate that science that is 90% false. How did it pay off?
Empty promises bring empty buildings. Contrast our biotechnology investment with the investment in politicians. 3.7 billion! Giving politicians money produces desired results. Maybe you want the government to add an earmark to a bill that will provide you with the money you need to create a Laurance Welk museum. It's been done. You can't pay a politician to cure cancer. Nor can you expect a biotech to do it. It hasn't been done.
Imagine taking a walk today through the empty spaces available for biotech. The smell of new construction, the lights turned off, no people around, and you keep walking for miles. What happened? 1100 Eastlake was completed in early 2009 — "just around the time the world fell apart," Blume said. The world didn't just fall apart in 2009. Biotech has been falling apart since it began. The success of a few companies fooled investors into thinking easy money was to be made. But the data of failed companies as a direct result of bad science has escaped the wealthy. Their starting to come around to the truth. It's a cargo cult airport!
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Meta Analysis, Measuring Measurments
In the early chapters of Dr. Ben Goldacres "Bad Science" he begins to unfold the concept of meta analysis. In statistics, a meta-analysis combines the results of several studies that address a set of related research hypotheses. Simply follow this link, and type meta analysis into the search box. I know I'm being lazy but no one says it better than Bad Science.
Bad science can be done in a clinical trial ran by a homeopathy company or a big pharma company. Both groups can work around almost any set of data. They practice an advanced form a cherry picking statistical analysis that is hard to detect. Meta analysis however has a way of measuring the measurements of clinical trials. In essence, it is a clinical trial of the scientific reasoning behind a particular area of interest.
Bring in Dr. Ionnidis (YO NEE DEES). In the November issue of The Atlantic David H. Freedman has an article titled "Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science". The main character is Dr. Ionnidis. He is a meta-researcher and he's one of the world's foremost experts on the credibility of medical research. Alas the CCS is just a lowly blogger but this guy has introduced science into the equation.
Indeed!
Dr. Ionnidis sees a pattern (the as does the CCS) and he has a method of testing his hypothesis. Of course this means that he has his own bias. As they point out in the article, it would not be very interesting if he did the analysis and found that most clinical trials are more or less correct. Dr. Ionnidis claims that roughly 90% of the medical research that doctors rely on is flawed. By merely pointing out the bias however, he has risen above the norm.
Bad science can be done in a clinical trial ran by a homeopathy company or a big pharma company. Both groups can work around almost any set of data. They practice an advanced form a cherry picking statistical analysis that is hard to detect. Meta analysis however has a way of measuring the measurements of clinical trials. In essence, it is a clinical trial of the scientific reasoning behind a particular area of interest.
Bring in Dr. Ionnidis (YO NEE DEES). In the November issue of The Atlantic David H. Freedman has an article titled "Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science". The main character is Dr. Ionnidis. He is a meta-researcher and he's one of the world's foremost experts on the credibility of medical research. Alas the CCS is just a lowly blogger but this guy has introduced science into the equation.
Dr. Ionnidis: "There is an intellectual conflict of interest that pressures researchers to find whatever it is that is most likely to get them funded".
Indeed!
Dr. Ionnidis sees a pattern (the as does the CCS) and he has a method of testing his hypothesis. Of course this means that he has his own bias. As they point out in the article, it would not be very interesting if he did the analysis and found that most clinical trials are more or less correct. Dr. Ionnidis claims that roughly 90% of the medical research that doctors rely on is flawed. By merely pointing out the bias however, he has risen above the norm.
Making a Drug Follow-up
Biospace reports a few snafus in the manufacturing side of big pharma.
Sandoz Pharmaceuticals Initiates Voluntary Recall of Ceplene in the US
B. Braun Medical Ltd. Voluntarily Recalls Seven Lots of Heparin Manufactured in 2008 Due to Supplier-Initiated Recall of Heparin Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API)
Crucell N.V. (CRXL) Halts Vaccine Shipments to Investigate Plant
This is not a cargo cult issue. It is quite the opposite. The reason for reporting errors and removing drug product from the market could be due to a moral issue of not wanting to hurt anyone or a business decision that makes the potential downside too high of a risk to take. Either way, the best thing to do was to remove the product from the patient.
This adds to yesterdays post on drug discovery vs drug manufacturing. Discovery is riddled with Cargo Cult Science. Manufacturing however must be done in a manner where predictable outcomes are an absolute requirement. When you have a problem you cannot hide it. Discovery is a whole different world.
Sandoz Pharmaceuticals Initiates Voluntary Recall of Ceplene in the US
B. Braun Medical Ltd. Voluntarily Recalls Seven Lots of Heparin Manufactured in 2008 Due to Supplier-Initiated Recall of Heparin Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API)
Crucell N.V. (CRXL) Halts Vaccine Shipments to Investigate Plant
This is not a cargo cult issue. It is quite the opposite. The reason for reporting errors and removing drug product from the market could be due to a moral issue of not wanting to hurt anyone or a business decision that makes the potential downside too high of a risk to take. Either way, the best thing to do was to remove the product from the patient.
This adds to yesterdays post on drug discovery vs drug manufacturing. Discovery is riddled with Cargo Cult Science. Manufacturing however must be done in a manner where predictable outcomes are an absolute requirement. When you have a problem you cannot hide it. Discovery is a whole different world.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Drug Development vs Making a Drug
How does a small company move from drug discovery to drug development? The answer is in partnering with people who know what to do. A handful of PHds from MIT who start up a biotech company based on some clever cloning vector do not have the proper experience to begin developing upstream and downstream processes that can be scaled to a GMP facility. They must seek help. This is difficult for any PHd.
What is happening to biotechnology today is similar to what happened during the dot com era. Initially people were very excited and money was not hard to find. After too many empty promises the money has dried up. Investors are looking for more advanced programs. In biotech that means they want a drug in phase II or III. In order to get there you have to have a drug to put into people. How do you do that? Biotech start ups only know how to get to the drug discovery phase. After this they must either outsource or learn new skills. The former is more desirable.
Big Pharma wants the little guys technology. Like the zillions of little companies that went out of business in the last 20 years, big pharma has also had a tough time discovering new drugs. They must look outside of their organization. They look to people who most often have never actually made a drug, small biotechs. They don't know the rules and there are lots of them. Still, big pharma and biotech partner up and roll the dice.
One group that doesn't gamble in this process are the contract manufacturing organizations. They accept the job, develop the methods and produce the drug. No further research will be required.
Does biotech understand the bottleneck of manufacturing? Do they understand clinical trials? That is another story. Once again, we clump the companies into a population. Some are better than others. Some are great at science but horrible at engineering issues. But go to a biotech company website and seek out the information that touts their ability to perform necessary routine development work. It's just not sexy. Without that expertise however, they won't even know who to call to get help. If you want money, you have to get smarter. There is now a new question start ups must answer besides "do you have a drug"? "Can you make it"?
What is happening to biotechnology today is similar to what happened during the dot com era. Initially people were very excited and money was not hard to find. After too many empty promises the money has dried up. Investors are looking for more advanced programs. In biotech that means they want a drug in phase II or III. In order to get there you have to have a drug to put into people. How do you do that? Biotech start ups only know how to get to the drug discovery phase. After this they must either outsource or learn new skills. The former is more desirable.
Big Pharma wants the little guys technology. Like the zillions of little companies that went out of business in the last 20 years, big pharma has also had a tough time discovering new drugs. They must look outside of their organization. They look to people who most often have never actually made a drug, small biotechs. They don't know the rules and there are lots of them. Still, big pharma and biotech partner up and roll the dice.
One group that doesn't gamble in this process are the contract manufacturing organizations. They accept the job, develop the methods and produce the drug. No further research will be required.
Does biotech understand the bottleneck of manufacturing? Do they understand clinical trials? That is another story. Once again, we clump the companies into a population. Some are better than others. Some are great at science but horrible at engineering issues. But go to a biotech company website and seek out the information that touts their ability to perform necessary routine development work. It's just not sexy. Without that expertise however, they won't even know who to call to get help. If you want money, you have to get smarter. There is now a new question start ups must answer besides "do you have a drug"? "Can you make it"?
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Wiki Leaks Didn't Write the Documents!
Those in power often times work in secret. Those outside of the chosen circle can't handle the truth.
But the truth is a powerful force for good. The story about WikiLeaks release of Afghanistan and Iraq war documents has angered those in power. The truth can get you in trouble. But the truth is the truth. In the long run, the truth is your friend.
What the mainstream media is ignoring is the organizations use of the truth to fight the notion that war is necessary. Science uses the same tactic. The truth is what is missing in cargo cults. It is replaced with ceremonial practices. If Wiki Leaks is in fact jeopardizing our security, where is the evidence? Why do Hillary Clinton and all of the other powerful people in our Cargo Cult claim that this will hurt us?
The Cargo Cult Scientist believes that war is a ceremony performed by group leaders to establish superiority over each other. It achieves very little and it destroys too much. Yet it has been established as a way of dealing with difficult outsiders. Does it work? Is it worth the guaranteed destruction of life and property? By looking at the reality of a war we can ask those who order the ceremony to account for it. We the little people do the ceremony. We look to the sky. Did the airplanes come?
But the truth is a powerful force for good. The story about WikiLeaks release of Afghanistan and Iraq war documents has angered those in power. The truth can get you in trouble. But the truth is the truth. In the long run, the truth is your friend.
"In our release of these 400,000 documents about the Iraq war," WikiLeaks Founder Julian Assange said, "the intimate detail of that war from the U.S. perspective, we hope to correct some of that attack on the truth that occurred before the war, during the war and which has continued on since the war officially concluded."
What the mainstream media is ignoring is the organizations use of the truth to fight the notion that war is necessary. Science uses the same tactic. The truth is what is missing in cargo cults. It is replaced with ceremonial practices. If Wiki Leaks is in fact jeopardizing our security, where is the evidence? Why do Hillary Clinton and all of the other powerful people in our Cargo Cult claim that this will hurt us?
The Cargo Cult Scientist believes that war is a ceremony performed by group leaders to establish superiority over each other. It achieves very little and it destroys too much. Yet it has been established as a way of dealing with difficult outsiders. Does it work? Is it worth the guaranteed destruction of life and property? By looking at the reality of a war we can ask those who order the ceremony to account for it. We the little people do the ceremony. We look to the sky. Did the airplanes come?
Friday, October 22, 2010
Financial Crisis Adjustments
Having to sell a house at this time has taught the CCS a painful lesson. Nothing is impossible. A house once worth 200K more than it was paid for (in 1.5 years) is now selling for 5K less than the original price. And it's not selling!
A few years ago the house would have sold faster and for much more. Same house, different time. In the Yahoo news today the story is that Dubia real estate woes have sent the rent in the worlds tallest building to approximately 60% of what they went for last year. So who is in charge of determining value?
If you are a real estate agent and you made 300K per year between 2003 and 2006 is your job not harder now that houses are harder to sell? Same person, more difficult job, lower pay. You were overpaid (over-valued) and this is an adjustment.
The upper echelon must learn that they are like overpriced real estate. The value they placed on themselves needs to be adjusted. In essence, they are like the top penthouse apartments. Their children, getting advanced degrees in the finer universities, are like new construction that will soon dilute the money pool of executive pay.
The goal is to make the adjustment without destroying as many people as did the real estate market. Place more value back on making a product or providing a service.
A few years ago the house would have sold faster and for much more. Same house, different time. In the Yahoo news today the story is that Dubia real estate woes have sent the rent in the worlds tallest building to approximately 60% of what they went for last year. So who is in charge of determining value?
If you are a real estate agent and you made 300K per year between 2003 and 2006 is your job not harder now that houses are harder to sell? Same person, more difficult job, lower pay. You were overpaid (over-valued) and this is an adjustment.
The upper echelon must learn that they are like overpriced real estate. The value they placed on themselves needs to be adjusted. In essence, they are like the top penthouse apartments. Their children, getting advanced degrees in the finer universities, are like new construction that will soon dilute the money pool of executive pay.
The goal is to make the adjustment without destroying as many people as did the real estate market. Place more value back on making a product or providing a service.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Biotech Logic and Initiative 1098
How hard is it to attract the right people to your cargo cult airport? Cargo cult airport technicians are people of great logic. Whether they work in the watch tower with coconuts over their ears with sticks for antennas, or whether they wrap a wire around their body and serve as a radio, they don't want to pay taxes.
So says the CEO of Dendreon.
Dendreon CEO Mitchell Gold says more is to come. "My goal is to build a fully integrated biotech company in Seattle," he says. The company envisions a campus of buildings that would include a pilot manufacturing plant.
This, to remind you, is for a drug treatment that costs 93K for one round. Mostly well to do cancer patients will be treated. Poor folks will mercifully die sooner.
Back to the article:
"And that requires the hiring of top talent from around the United States, says Rich Ranieri, the company's head of human resources. The need is for scientific talent and also commercial talent specific to biotechnology — a talent pool that has not existed in Seattle since the sale of Immunex in 2002. And that means recruiting men and women from the big biotech centers in Massachusetts, New Jersey and California.
Some people in those states jump at the chance to move to Seattle, but many do not. This is not the center of their universe. A recruiter needs enticements — and one of ours is no state income tax.
"Having no state income tax is an attractive tool for us," says Ranieri. "It matters."
For this city, biotech matters. It is part of our future. Let's not mess it up Initiative 1098."
The gist of the initiative is that people earning over 400K year will have to pay an income tax.
My favorite comment from the online responses:
"Dendreon hopes to make its money selling $93,000
treatments for doctors to prescribe to old rapidly dying men for a 4 month survival "benefit". Who will pay the $93000 to Dendreon? Mainly taxpayers paying into the Medicare system.
Who does the money go to? A CO. w/ management that wants its taxes lowered!
What a country!"
Priceless
So says the CEO of Dendreon.
Dendreon CEO Mitchell Gold says more is to come. "My goal is to build a fully integrated biotech company in Seattle," he says. The company envisions a campus of buildings that would include a pilot manufacturing plant.
This, to remind you, is for a drug treatment that costs 93K for one round. Mostly well to do cancer patients will be treated. Poor folks will mercifully die sooner.
Back to the article:
"And that requires the hiring of top talent from around the United States, says Rich Ranieri, the company's head of human resources. The need is for scientific talent and also commercial talent specific to biotechnology — a talent pool that has not existed in Seattle since the sale of Immunex in 2002. And that means recruiting men and women from the big biotech centers in Massachusetts, New Jersey and California.
Some people in those states jump at the chance to move to Seattle, but many do not. This is not the center of their universe. A recruiter needs enticements — and one of ours is no state income tax.
"Having no state income tax is an attractive tool for us," says Ranieri. "It matters."
For this city, biotech matters. It is part of our future. Let's not mess it up Initiative 1098."
The gist of the initiative is that people earning over 400K year will have to pay an income tax.
My favorite comment from the online responses:
"Dendreon hopes to make its money selling $93,000
treatments for doctors to prescribe to old rapidly dying men for a 4 month survival "benefit". Who will pay the $93000 to Dendreon? Mainly taxpayers paying into the Medicare system.
Who does the money go to? A CO. w/ management that wants its taxes lowered!
What a country!"
Priceless
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Airport Authority Discussion
It's gonna turn this whole thing around.
Of course our airport is in trouble. The investors gave generously, the cargo cult workers did what they thought would bring the metal birds, nothing happened, big pharma gave up hope, investors got tired of losing money, workers were laid off, and now it's October of 2010.
But it was not a lost decade. When you practice a biotech kind of science you can expect 99% failure with a lucky win from time to time.
What if there was a forum with the losers? What about the workers who knew about the mistakes that were made? What if there was a poster session of the most comical scientific logic displayed by local biotech leaders? To put it all in proper perspective there should be a counter forum to "Biotechs Back in Seattle".
Someone should put together the stats of jobs lost and jobs gained in the past year. How much money was poured into the existing companies and how many jobs did it create. What kinds of jobs are now in demand? What is biotech and how is it back?
The panel are people who need to attract money to the area. Should we trust what they are saying?
Of course our airport is in trouble. The investors gave generously, the cargo cult workers did what they thought would bring the metal birds, nothing happened, big pharma gave up hope, investors got tired of losing money, workers were laid off, and now it's October of 2010.
But it was not a lost decade. When you practice a biotech kind of science you can expect 99% failure with a lucky win from time to time.
What if there was a forum with the losers? What about the workers who knew about the mistakes that were made? What if there was a poster session of the most comical scientific logic displayed by local biotech leaders? To put it all in proper perspective there should be a counter forum to "Biotechs Back in Seattle".
Someone should put together the stats of jobs lost and jobs gained in the past year. How much money was poured into the existing companies and how many jobs did it create. What kinds of jobs are now in demand? What is biotech and how is it back?
The panel are people who need to attract money to the area. Should we trust what they are saying?
Monday, October 18, 2010
Top Ten of 2010
President Obama has put together a top ten list. They call it the National Medal of Science Laureates.
Stan Prusiner, Nobel Prize winner 1997, made the list. But what has he done since winning the prize? What did he do before he won the prize?
The key to winning awards however is to silence your enemies. As a brilliant politician, Prusiner has earned many awards. But it is Taubes who has fought a brave fight against the arrogance of scientific authority. He didn't care who was right, but what was right.
Stan Prusiner, Nobel Prize winner 1997, made the list. But what has he done since winning the prize? What did he do before he won the prize?
The key to winning awards however is to silence your enemies. As a brilliant politician, Prusiner has earned many awards. But it is Taubes who has fought a brave fight against the arrogance of scientific authority. He didn't care who was right, but what was right.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Nonscience
"Interestingly, mutations were observed at a frequency dependent on display valency".
This is a quote from a paper that was published regarding some work that I performed. It is a confusing statement. A phage library was made with 7 random amino acids stuffed into a 20 amino acid peptide. Does the statement mean if there were 8 random amino acids that there would be more mutations?
Like Feynman said, we should report everything we do, not just the things we want people to believe. Phage libraries can be made from simple oligo sythesis samples from companies like Invitrogen. There were ten vials of DNA preparations that came from several oligo orders from Invitrogen. One of the oligo orders came in with all phenylalalines where random nucleotides were suppose to be. Not a mutation, but a mistake at Invitrogen. There was one oligo that gave the best results. It was used to make 5 DNA preps that were inserted into our phage vector. Only 2 of these preps gave the results we needed to get the library done. 90% of the library come from the first prep.
The other oligos should have been the same but we humans were doing work with them. The "mutations" that the paper mentioned disappeared when a new oligo was ordered. However, new "mutations" came with new DNA. It is a normal occurrence in cloning man made DNA into vectors. The fidelity of the DNA insert was pretty good actually. The only thing interesting is how ignorant the authors of the paper and the editors of the journal were to this fact.
Perhaps someone else should have tried to reproduce the work. That would serve everyone interested by demonstrating that the papers "mutations" claim was not only wrong, but a non-science claim.
This is a quote from a paper that was published regarding some work that I performed. It is a confusing statement. A phage library was made with 7 random amino acids stuffed into a 20 amino acid peptide. Does the statement mean if there were 8 random amino acids that there would be more mutations?
Like Feynman said, we should report everything we do, not just the things we want people to believe. Phage libraries can be made from simple oligo sythesis samples from companies like Invitrogen. There were ten vials of DNA preparations that came from several oligo orders from Invitrogen. One of the oligo orders came in with all phenylalalines where random nucleotides were suppose to be. Not a mutation, but a mistake at Invitrogen. There was one oligo that gave the best results. It was used to make 5 DNA preps that were inserted into our phage vector. Only 2 of these preps gave the results we needed to get the library done. 90% of the library come from the first prep.
The other oligos should have been the same but we humans were doing work with them. The "mutations" that the paper mentioned disappeared when a new oligo was ordered. However, new "mutations" came with new DNA. It is a normal occurrence in cloning man made DNA into vectors. The fidelity of the DNA insert was pretty good actually. The only thing interesting is how ignorant the authors of the paper and the editors of the journal were to this fact.
Perhaps someone else should have tried to reproduce the work. That would serve everyone interested by demonstrating that the papers "mutations" claim was not only wrong, but a non-science claim.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Scientific Satus Quo
Bad times have a scientific value. These are occasions a good learner would not miss.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
The best experiments have built in controls to help you believe the results. If you want to quantitate a protein, for example, besides an unknown there should always be a known. It should incorporate numerous measurements so that statistical analysis can be applied. What might happen is that your known shows a lack of precision and/or accuracy. Then you have some information about the measurements of your unknown.
Since the CCS is a biotech worker, we have often seen a standard curve of 5 data points, each measured once, and an unknown measured once. Even worse, we have seen the standard curve imported from a previous day. The unknown is measure once and that is all. Now would this be important information? Scientifically, yes. Would the CSO of the company waste his important time on such trivial details? No. But isn't this the part of the business that matters most? Whoever has power within an organization doesn't have to focus on every detail. But they should serve as the judge over whether or not rigorous scientific experimentation is taking place. This is how junior personnel pull the wool over the eyes of people like Dr. Woo and Baltimore who want specific results and aren't paying attention to how they are obtained.
So I go back to the concept of the Misconduct Journal. Each act of misconduct is a gem that can be used as a learning experience for everyone who works in science. And each monthly issue will have a fresh new case to explore! There are no shortages of those who get caught. Imagine the actual number of cases that should be reported.
Again... Feynman: "One example of the principle is this: If you’ve made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of results".
The entire scientific community seems to be focused on positive results by top notch scientists. What about top notch science by human beings. Anyone can do it. A scientific journal should be able to focus on science.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
The best experiments have built in controls to help you believe the results. If you want to quantitate a protein, for example, besides an unknown there should always be a known. It should incorporate numerous measurements so that statistical analysis can be applied. What might happen is that your known shows a lack of precision and/or accuracy. Then you have some information about the measurements of your unknown.
Since the CCS is a biotech worker, we have often seen a standard curve of 5 data points, each measured once, and an unknown measured once. Even worse, we have seen the standard curve imported from a previous day. The unknown is measure once and that is all. Now would this be important information? Scientifically, yes. Would the CSO of the company waste his important time on such trivial details? No. But isn't this the part of the business that matters most? Whoever has power within an organization doesn't have to focus on every detail. But they should serve as the judge over whether or not rigorous scientific experimentation is taking place. This is how junior personnel pull the wool over the eyes of people like Dr. Woo and Baltimore who want specific results and aren't paying attention to how they are obtained.
So I go back to the concept of the Misconduct Journal. Each act of misconduct is a gem that can be used as a learning experience for everyone who works in science. And each monthly issue will have a fresh new case to explore! There are no shortages of those who get caught. Imagine the actual number of cases that should be reported.
Again... Feynman: "One example of the principle is this: If you’ve made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of results".
The entire scientific community seems to be focused on positive results by top notch scientists. What about top notch science by human beings. Anyone can do it. A scientific journal should be able to focus on science.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Woo Retractions
Gene Therapy is interesting. There is something to confusing a cell with extra DNA. We know we can insert DNA into a genome and it will express a protein of our desire. It may also splice that piece of DNA out of the genome.
But to simply throw DNA at a cell is not science. You randomly introduce DNA to a living organism, see what happens and create a story behind the results. So far there hasn't been the kind of explanation of gene therapy that leads to a predictable outcome. Throwing dice on the other hand has been studied for centuries and we know what will happen.
Which leads to the Woo story. Two of Woo’s post-doctoral fellows at Mount Sinai School of Medicine were dismissed for “research misconduct,” said Ian Michaels, a spokesman for the institution. According to Michaels:
"When Dr. Savio L C Woo came to suspect that two post-doctoral fellows in his laboratory may have engaged in research misconduct he notified the Mount Sinai Research Integrity Office. Mount Sinai immediately initiated institutional reviews that resulted in both post-doctoral fellows being dismissed for research misconduct. At no time were there allegations that Dr. Woo had engaged in research misconduct. As part of its review, the investigation committee looked into this possibility and confirmed that no research misconduct could be attributed to Dr. Woo, who voluntarily retracted the papers regarding the research in question. Mount Sinai reported the results of its investigations to the appropriate government agencies and continues to cooperate with them as part of its commitment to adhere to the highest standards for research integrity".
The papers, which appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Journal of the National Cancer Institute and Human Gene Therapy, involve findings published between 2005 and 2009, address various aspect of gene therapy. Two of the articles boasted of potential breakthroughs, and even a possible cure, for diseases with extremely high rates of mortality.
No there was no misconduct on Dr. Woos' part. Just an eagerness to see what he wanted to see. And that is a Cargo Cult offense.
But to simply throw DNA at a cell is not science. You randomly introduce DNA to a living organism, see what happens and create a story behind the results. So far there hasn't been the kind of explanation of gene therapy that leads to a predictable outcome. Throwing dice on the other hand has been studied for centuries and we know what will happen.
Which leads to the Woo story. Two of Woo’s post-doctoral fellows at Mount Sinai School of Medicine were dismissed for “research misconduct,” said Ian Michaels, a spokesman for the institution. According to Michaels:
"When Dr. Savio L C Woo came to suspect that two post-doctoral fellows in his laboratory may have engaged in research misconduct he notified the Mount Sinai Research Integrity Office. Mount Sinai immediately initiated institutional reviews that resulted in both post-doctoral fellows being dismissed for research misconduct. At no time were there allegations that Dr. Woo had engaged in research misconduct. As part of its review, the investigation committee looked into this possibility and confirmed that no research misconduct could be attributed to Dr. Woo, who voluntarily retracted the papers regarding the research in question. Mount Sinai reported the results of its investigations to the appropriate government agencies and continues to cooperate with them as part of its commitment to adhere to the highest standards for research integrity".
The papers, which appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Journal of the National Cancer Institute and Human Gene Therapy, involve findings published between 2005 and 2009, address various aspect of gene therapy. Two of the articles boasted of potential breakthroughs, and even a possible cure, for diseases with extremely high rates of mortality.
No there was no misconduct on Dr. Woos' part. Just an eagerness to see what he wanted to see. And that is a Cargo Cult offense.
Saturday, October 09, 2010
Mercks Big Bet Revisited
Long ago I just knew that Mercks acquisition of Rosetta (bioinformatics) and SIRNA (RNA silencing) was a match made in the imaginary heaven that exists in the hollowed heads of BigPharma/Biotech executives.
See Mercks Big Bet, 2006.
Since then I've updated the blog to point out the closing down of Rosetta. Merck has been pretty tight lipped about the progress they've made in the four years since so I've nothing new to report.
There remains Marina Biotech, Tekmira, and Avi Biopharma in our Seattle Cargo Cult Airport.
We are still following the RNAi story and there still is a story. That is astonishing to me, the CCS. Somewhere out there, grown up men and women are still convinced that RNAi is going to become a drug. Why do they think that?
See Mercks Big Bet, 2006.
Since then I've updated the blog to point out the closing down of Rosetta. Merck has been pretty tight lipped about the progress they've made in the four years since so I've nothing new to report.
There remains Marina Biotech, Tekmira, and Avi Biopharma in our Seattle Cargo Cult Airport.
We are still following the RNAi story and there still is a story. That is astonishing to me, the CCS. Somewhere out there, grown up men and women are still convinced that RNAi is going to become a drug. Why do they think that?
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
When Credentials Outweigh Capabilities
Credentials
–noun
1.
Usually, credentials. evidence of authority, status, rights, entitlement to privileges, or the like, usually in written form: Only those with the proper credentials are admitted.
2.
anything that provides the basis for confidence, belief, credit, etc.
Capabilities
-noun
1.
Usually, capabilities. qualities, abilities, features, etc., that can be used or developed; potential: Though dilapidated, the house has great capabilities.
I was talking to a person in the human resources side of biotechnology. He tells me that pHDs are removing the pHD from their resumes. Has the industry started to sour on the title? It used to say, "I'm capable". What does it say now?
–noun
1.
Usually, credentials. evidence of authority, status, rights, entitlement to privileges, or the like, usually in written form: Only those with the proper credentials are admitted.
2.
anything that provides the basis for confidence, belief, credit, etc.
Capabilities
-noun
1.
Usually, capabilities. qualities, abilities, features, etc., that can be used or developed; potential: Though dilapidated, the house has great capabilities.
I was talking to a person in the human resources side of biotechnology. He tells me that pHDs are removing the pHD from their resumes. Has the industry started to sour on the title? It used to say, "I'm capable". What does it say now?
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Can You Blow the Whistle on Bullshit?
In the Baltimore Case, Margot O'Toole, found she was unable to reproduce some of the reported results in her own experimental mice. Her attempts to resolve the problem with her immediate boss, Dr. Thereza Imanishi-Kari, led O'Toole to suspect defects or errors in the original research. Her doubts seemed to be confirmed when inspection of laboratory notebooks revealed discrepancies with the published results. Apparently fobbed off by Imanishi-Kari, with whom there was obviously a major personality clash, O'Toole felt affronted that her superiors appeared to show so little commitment to the fearless pursuit of scientific truth to which they paid lip service. She made her suspicions public and turned whistle-blower.
If you are gay, over 40, female, of a minority race or in some other protected class, there are laws that prevent you from the harassment Margot O'Toole experienced. Margot O'Tool left the biological sciences for many years after blowing the whistle on Baltimore and Imanishi-Kari.
What if there was a court of law that would hear your case against scientific bullshit. By bullshit I mean anywhere from honestly mistaken to fraud. The only issue of the court would be the truth. Credentials would not be allowed. The protected class would be those who are speaking the truth.
If you are gay, over 40, female, of a minority race or in some other protected class, there are laws that prevent you from the harassment Margot O'Toole experienced. Margot O'Tool left the biological sciences for many years after blowing the whistle on Baltimore and Imanishi-Kari.
What if there was a court of law that would hear your case against scientific bullshit. By bullshit I mean anywhere from honestly mistaken to fraud. The only issue of the court would be the truth. Credentials would not be allowed. The protected class would be those who are speaking the truth.
The Buy-Out
Zymogenetics has operated in Seattle since 1981. They even made a few products along the way. Their fire along our runway however will soon be extinguished. One of Zymos eulogies discussed the health of the biotech industry in Seattle.
"Biotech advances flow from the well of scientific discovery. Individuals who haven’t worked in a biotech setting don’t always grasp the synergistic benefits of putting together a research team that recombines individual talents to innovate fantastic discoveries that lead to new drugs."
He goes on to point out, "A quick look at the WaBio website shows only about 33 job openings at local biotech companies, with about an equal number of jobs listed for academic and other institutions. Since 2002, when Amgen bought Immunex, there have been over 3,200 layoffs at local biotech companies (not including any upcoming layoffs at ZymoGenetics or Trubion), and I would wager that a lot of these folks were unable to find employment locally."
That is 3200 gone and 33 still available. The only piece missing here is how many jobs have opened up since 2002? That is the health of the industry and its ability to keep the college educated work force required for research teams.
"Biotech advances flow from the well of scientific discovery. Individuals who haven’t worked in a biotech setting don’t always grasp the synergistic benefits of putting together a research team that recombines individual talents to innovate fantastic discoveries that lead to new drugs."
He goes on to point out, "A quick look at the WaBio website shows only about 33 job openings at local biotech companies, with about an equal number of jobs listed for academic and other institutions. Since 2002, when Amgen bought Immunex, there have been over 3,200 layoffs at local biotech companies (not including any upcoming layoffs at ZymoGenetics or Trubion), and I would wager that a lot of these folks were unable to find employment locally."
That is 3200 gone and 33 still available. The only piece missing here is how many jobs have opened up since 2002? That is the health of the industry and its ability to keep the college educated work force required for research teams.
I found a comment from another article regarding demise of Zymo: "I’ve been in pharma work since ‘93, and with Seattle-area biotechs since ‘97 and I’ve been through three layoffs, five mergers and and two company failings.
I had a co-worker coming to me in tears asking me whether she should get a divorce and go back to a job she had out east, or stay with an intransigent husband and child and accept unemployment. I watched a co-worker selling off his furniture to help cover Cobra payments to carry them through the birth of their child. Out of roughly 100 scientists that I’ve worked with (i.e. in my “group” or department) since ‘97 only a little over a third are still in the Seattle area. I’ve spent almost three out of the last thirteen years in this area between paychecks. I know skilled scientists that hung it up to become tour guides, salesman, stay-at-home parents and retail clerks."
There was a Tiki torch along our Cargo Cult airport that burned for many years. It was labeled Zymogenetics. This one was a little different. Why did it burn so long?
The common thread, is that it will soon be gone. It goes on to live as a piece of a mega drug company. Of the hundreds of unemployed people, who will become tour guides, salesmen, stay-at-home parents and retail clerks? My hope is that these people find happiness. Those who find replacement biotech jobs must realize that they work in a cargo cult airport. We take someone from the watch tower, remove the 'coconuts with sticks for antennas' from their ears and we strap a wire around their body and tell them they are now a radio. It pays well for awhile but the duration of that paycheck is random. Zymo was long lived but what will happen next is more likely to be 'three layoffs, five mergers and and two company failings'.
Monday, September 20, 2010
What Did You Do To Cause This Recession?
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
Laurence J. Peter
A friend tried to get an advertised 10% off her phone bill. After 2 hours and numerous contacts she finally got a phone number to call tomorrow to see if that group knows how to get the discount.
When the economy went into the tank we ended up with a vast amount of Americans unemployed. Which ones could have helped customers get that 10% discount? Did any of those unemployed people have a job where they made the discount harder to obtain? Not everyone contributes to a better business. In any sizable group of people, some are good, some are bad. Which ones are the leaders and which ones are the smartest?
In our world we have valued individuals based on college education, job title, responsibilities and experience. Currently younger college educated people are having a hard time finding work as are the 50+ white collar workers. Like a piece of real estate, those two groups of workers have lost their value.
Was the cost of employing so many people not paying off? Or did the economy take away the business that paid the salaries. Anyone who has worked with a bad boss or a bullying HR department knows that not everyone is doing work that directly earns money. A software engineer may work 16 hour days developing a product only to one day find his job has ended. But business decision makers can be like cargo cult leaders and they may one day remove all of the useful people and leave behind an office full of white collar folk who have meetings all day wondering what to do next.
It is of course very complicated. Without sound business decisions, the money will dry up. The value of employing business decision makers is thus based on the companies financial health. The value of the product developers is based on whether or not people want to buy their product over the competitors. If you like X Box better than Play Station 3, you give your money to Microsoft. The business people must employ the product developers and direct them to make the best product. The business people must then shift the cost of business from R&D to sales.
But I end this post on a positive note. I have stepped out of the product development side of my own Cargo Cult business. For sanity purposes I am going back to my old ways of thinking more, working less. And I will write more.
Laurence J. Peter
A friend tried to get an advertised 10% off her phone bill. After 2 hours and numerous contacts she finally got a phone number to call tomorrow to see if that group knows how to get the discount.
When the economy went into the tank we ended up with a vast amount of Americans unemployed. Which ones could have helped customers get that 10% discount? Did any of those unemployed people have a job where they made the discount harder to obtain? Not everyone contributes to a better business. In any sizable group of people, some are good, some are bad. Which ones are the leaders and which ones are the smartest?
In our world we have valued individuals based on college education, job title, responsibilities and experience. Currently younger college educated people are having a hard time finding work as are the 50+ white collar workers. Like a piece of real estate, those two groups of workers have lost their value.
Was the cost of employing so many people not paying off? Or did the economy take away the business that paid the salaries. Anyone who has worked with a bad boss or a bullying HR department knows that not everyone is doing work that directly earns money. A software engineer may work 16 hour days developing a product only to one day find his job has ended. But business decision makers can be like cargo cult leaders and they may one day remove all of the useful people and leave behind an office full of white collar folk who have meetings all day wondering what to do next.
It is of course very complicated. Without sound business decisions, the money will dry up. The value of employing business decision makers is thus based on the companies financial health. The value of the product developers is based on whether or not people want to buy their product over the competitors. If you like X Box better than Play Station 3, you give your money to Microsoft. The business people must employ the product developers and direct them to make the best product. The business people must then shift the cost of business from R&D to sales.
But I end this post on a positive note. I have stepped out of the product development side of my own Cargo Cult business. For sanity purposes I am going back to my old ways of thinking more, working less. And I will write more.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
A Drunkards Walk
'A Drunkards Walk' was a fine read. The reason it has resonated so much with the CCS is due to the randomness of the biotech business model. In our science, desired outcomes make everyone happy. When outcomes are not favorable, the laboratory technician who ran the experiment, the statistician, clinical trial doctor..., is grilled to determine what he/she did wrong. Does the desirability of results bias the judgment on experimental outcome?
In a Drunkards Walk the relationship between randomness and our interpretations of life are explored. On one hand, we have got some serious scientific problems when it comes to biology level scientists trying to distinguish between random and non-random events. But the scientists don't really put a company on the map. Investors do, and we need them to be ignorant of the lessons taught in "A Drunkards Walk".
Check out this comment from a biotech company yahoo finance message board: "@#$%^&* will either hit a home run or will be made to look like an idiot. Either way, I am still invested. Lottery ticket, hopefully a payout. I have lost before."
Thank you for investing sir.
Check out this comment from a biotech company yahoo finance message board: "@#$%^&* will either hit a home run or will be made to look like an idiot. Either way, I am still invested. Lottery ticket, hopefully a payout. I have lost before."
Thank you for investing sir.
Monday, July 19, 2010
At the End of the Day
I've been interested in the financial meltdown lately and how it is related to CCS. I recently watched a DVD with the Economic Hitman, John Perkins. As I've mentioned, I work in biotech for the money. The money is the sole reason for waking up and going to work each day. In better times perhaps I would try harder to find meaningful work. As it stands, I'm a son-of-bitch. John used to be the same way. Only he made a lot more money.
In the DVD, Mr. Perkins mentioned that the people who worked in the "Economic Hitman" field were not necessarily bad people. In fact, they may have been very honest people who believe they are working in the best interest of others. Yet Mr. Perkins, who worked in the same field, now feels the need to carry on a crusade to educate the world about the ways in which the rich are getting richer. He's different. He feels what was done was dishonest and those who work in high places should know better.
Cargo Cults are run by people who have always desired to be the boss. These people have always existed and they always will. Some are preachers in local churches. Some are CEOs and politicians. They love the power but feel most insecure when it is time for the planes to come. Religious leaders have it the easiest. The planes don't come in our lifetime. The afterlife is the promise. CEOs on the other hand have a problem. If shareholders start losing money then the CEO musts go. Politicians must pray the CEOs and religious leaders are pacifying the people during times of strife.
The scientist however thinks thoughts in a world aside from CCS leadership. He knows the ways to make the planes land, whether or not he/she has access to what is needed. CCS leaders have the power to keep themselves and their friends employed at the top for as long as they can stand it. Just look at the US Treasury and the Wall Street relationship. In spite of their failure, they have survived and they got even richer in the process. But John Perkins knows a thing or two about them and how they do it. John doesn't have the power unfortunately. He has his thoughts and he sees the damage before it is done. When the damage IS done, and a handful of people prosper as a result, he is not surprised.
So at the end of the day, when I head home from a day of Biotech non-science, I hang my head and hope for the day when I can work away from CCS. Is there a place in the world for people like John Perkins who leave lucrative positions and try to point out negative things to a tribe of people who only want to hear stories about the cargo. The world needs people who send out warnings that repeatedly come true. Not everyone wants to be rich. Some have a deeper purpose.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Are We Different?
Over the course of a few years I've come to a conclusion about biotech people. They are no more scientific nor any less religious than any other group of people. Most believe in the christian diety. Most have never heard of Richard Feynman. The story of N-Rays seems pointless.
Long ago people began to look at the world and wonder if they could discover things that no one had yet explained. By taking measurements for example, they soon learned that water boiled at the same temperature (more or less). When they were convinced that they had a fact they told others and challenged them to prove them wrong. A certain kind of person would find the study to be... interesting. Another kind of person would be confused as to why the would-be scientist had bothered to pursue their research.
In a group of 100 Americans, how many would be in the latter sub-group?
In the Cargo Cults, everything is known. The rituals are well established. The only thing to do is wait for the Gods to deliver the goods.
So in our biotechnology laboratory we can make proteins and cell lines and send them forth into the blood streams of animals to establish the simple fact, that our drug is the real deal. Our drug is going to be that airplane in the sky. We see it clearly.
In a group of 100 Americans, how many would see it clearly? Let's say that those 100 people work at the biotech company who made the drug. Do we all believe?
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Did You Learn How to Believe?
I have a bad attitude regarding Biotechnology. I believe the financial interests spoil any chance of science taking place. In its place we build Cargo Cult Airports and occasionally make a whole lot of money from fools who believe our stories. The biggest fools however, are the ones who toil in the laboratories. They stand duty in that wooden hut with two wooden pieces on their head like antennas and they soon start to believe that they are indeed the controller of the airport. They wait for the airplanes in spite of what they have learned. They are now believers.
Yet I work in one of the Cargo Cult Airports. Why?
Money.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Life Coaches for the Life Sciences
Why do we have a life coach at our biotech company? Our "scientists" do need guidance in the ways of managing other human beings. That can be an important aspect of the service. But managers are hired to manage. Why not hire a "science coach"? The managers are also hired to do science.
The coach shows up in a 1992 Honda Accord. His 6'4" frame towers over the little car as he emerges desperately dialing someone, anyone, to make sure he looks busy on his way to our door. He could be here to visit our clinical trial leadership. He could be here to visit the HR person to recommend a new book for the in house leadership book club. Or perhaps the director of R&D... CEO? All people he has consulted with.
Does he have another job? Night shift at Target? Does he have an office? Does he know what DNA is or an antibody? No matter. He has his skills. We're dying to know what they are. But that is not information that is shared with most. It is another secret. Because we have secrets. The coach is one. What could he be teaching a science based company?
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
What to Say?
Lately I've been mulling over several topics.
Eli Lilly has a couple of cargo cult irons in the fire. Yesterday http://www.biospace.com/news_story.aspx?NewsEntityId=167679
But we expect dishonesty from those who practice the cargo cult science. More interesting is their own angst over being burned by the same kind of silliness. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704247504574604503922019082.html
Warren Buffet is qouted, "You don't ask the barber if you need a haircut". Is big pharma starting to get this concept?
The economic meltdown is another topic. Think of the financial system as a CCS airport. The meltdown is merely the locals who have given up on the arrival of the planes and gone home. It's an abstract concept. Is monetary value real or imagined? Do we gamble on the imaginations of "geniuses" or do they really have a system?
Lastly, tonight, Shadow Elite. I've just purchased this book, and have yet to read it. However I am intrigued by the notion. Is it possible that we look at our own Cargo Cult Airport and eagerly await the scholarly words of the leaders, yet off in the distance, there are those who know that the planes aren't coming? If so, how do they succeed in this type of pursuit?
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
These Airplanes Are Fake!
Imagine the leaders of the Cargo Cult Airport leading a group of people around their airport. They bring the people close up to the airplanes but never close enough to actually touch one. They show them the workers but never allow a conversation. If they did they would see that the airplanes are merely wooden replicas and the workers have no clue what they are doing.
This is a biotech website. Those who chose to look will see the white lab coats.
But alas, not all who contribute to the biz are cargo cult scientists. For example, some are there to make the product that goes into the clinical trials. These people have experience and expensive equipment that make biological products. They cannot survive for the long term making wooden replicas. They make real biological products. It is up to the biotech company to use the products to create the dream that one day the airplanes will come.
Now we see someone who has a real concern about the quality of the airplanes/drugs. The airplane/drugs must have certain attributes that are not properly ascertained by looking from a distance.
Long story short, we (my biotech co.) are being discovered. A contract manufacturer is asking questions about how we produced and purified and packaged our drug, an antibody. Not just how, but why did we do what we did. Our answers we not sufficient. The CMO is now doing what it does with less and less help from the little biotech who is paying them to do their job.
The moral of this story is that not all biotech is Cargo Cult. Although it is embarrassing to be on the wrong side of right and wrong, I am pleased to see a contract manufacturing company asking the right questions and getting the wrong answers... and knowing that they are wrong.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
A River Runs Through It
I'm currently faced with a situation that would have pushed me over the edge in my younger days. We are working in "process development" in a small biotech company. We spent a few years getting by, purifying antibodies on a routine basis. All of our methods seemed to have come from a contract manufacturer who was hired years ago to produce a drug candidate for us. Our people knew nothing to begin with, and after watching the contract manufacturer do their work, they knew very little. What our people did was to find out what buffers were used. That is all they came away with. They did not know why the buffers were chosen but they knew that they worked.
What we have now is a clear "Cargo Cult Science". (CCS)
Our contract manufacturers succeed. They must or they will not continue as an entity. We on the other hand can carry on for years, because we do not have to produce anything other than charts and graphs that can be presented at meetings with affluential people. Contract manufacturers produce our drug and they must not only convince the world that the protein exists, but it is in the very vials that they send forth! And they do it very well. We don't know how.
But we, in this little company, take the proteins in the vials and we take them to the Cargo Cult Airport. We incorporate them into our rituals and invite our investors to sit with us and wait for the airplanes to arrive. So far nothing but a whole lot of money.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Pfizer Shuts Down Several Airports
As part of its integration of Wyeth, Pfizer said it will close a total of six research facilities and ultimately reduce the work occurring at 20 research facilities into five main research campuses and nine specialized units around the world.
What were they doing wrong? Here they are admitting that the planes were not landing. They've restructured. Will the planes land?
It all seems so random. To the investor or the executive they have a new path. But what was really wrong? Why couldn't the millions of dollars, pHDs up the arse, cutting edge technology and the latest advances in medical science produce promising candidates?
Something was missing...
Science, Sequences and God
I used the Henderson–Hasselbalch equation to calculate the amounts of acetic acid and sodium acetate needed for a certain buffer. When the pH of the solution was taken it was exactly what it should have been. This is the kind of science that the CCS likes. Now consider the human genome project.
After a fortune was spent on the project, and more than a few "leaders" of the sequencing became famous, what do we really have? Has anyone ever truly used it logically? It's a bunch of As Ts Gs and Cs. I originally thought there would be patterns that a computer could pull out that would help us to understand what a gene is. Unfortunately, most people believe they already know what a gene is. The genome project has only resulted in the kind of science the CCS dislikes. You take a finite set and you select a piece of the set that best describes your pre-conceived notion. In the case of the genome project, they selected five people and they began sequencing their DNA. When they were done they said, "wallah, the human genome, now go and cure diseases. But don't ask us how to use this tool." The "how" is science. The sequence is a whole bunch of sequencing machines working day and night.
Another such science is RNAi where you select a set of sequences to knock out a gene. You select the best one. You can't lose.
In the Henderson–Hasselbalch example, you can lose. You can screw up the math and get the wrong pH. Biotech companies practice the genome project and RNAi type of science. A company selects a drug or some service and hires "scientists" to prove that it works. The leadership are university trained scientists who find work in laboratories to be unpleasant and better suited for the lesser intelligent university trained scientists.
This brings me to the point of this post. One of the scientists who gained some fame from the genome project has been promoted to NIH director.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atJa8QDGj8QU
Here is the craziest part of it.
http://biologos.org/
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Randomly Fumbling Through the Day
Quite often in our business we move from one experiment to the next, never analyzing the previous set of data. After a while people begin to believe that such a logical process is not possible in our special set of circumstances.
Take for example the case of the gender assay from AcuGen Biolabs Inc. They claim a 99.9% accuracy in guessing the sex of your baby as soon as 5 weeks after conception. Due to patent issues, they claim, they are unable to share with anyone the data from where this accuracy was calculated. Statistically, how many tests would have to be done to verify that they can significantly predict male, female or twins with a 99.9% accuracy? Can't we test this biotech company to make sure they are not selling a bogus product.
But kudos for their method of sidestepping the FDA. Each day we in biotech attempt to create data that we think will satisfy the FDA. They do not tell anyone ahead of time what to do so we fumble along looking for things we think will help our case. The real skill then becomes how to avoid exposing bad data. Randomness allows less than favorable data to be hidden. Well thought our research leaves you wide open for failure. And that is a bad business model.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Stats
My career in biotech has been maddening. But it is not biotechnology that is the issue. The issue is statistical analysis of data. This became very clear last week when some of us sat through a course in a software product that analyzes data. A lot of time was spent debating what a sample was versus what a population was. We even had people arguing over the term bogus results versus "not validated". The useful aspect of statistics was not of interest to our group.
There was a simple illustration about a lady who could tell the difference between tea with milk added versus milk with tea added. The design of the experiment to test this lady was rigorous. The people testing the lady were highly skeptical about her claim. The design of experiment however, left out the possibility of bias on either side of the question. In the end they all agreed, the lady could tell the order in which her tea and milk were combined.
When Feynman said, "So we really ought to look into theories that don't work, and science that isn't science." he seemed to touching on the powers of statistics to analyze experimental design. Psychics and people who speak to the dead are best exposed using statistics. Biotechnology can also be analyzed this way. The real trick for our future is to find ways to get Biotech and the pharmaceutical industry to allow outside groups to analyze their data and their analysis of their data. The thought of a group of MDs locking themselves in a conference room to make a recommendation to the FDA regarding research seems absurd to me. The Design of Experiments is the whole issue behind the Cargo Cult Scientist.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Monday, March 09, 2009
Large Groups of Humans
Deliver Us From Evil, http://www.deliverusfromevilthemovie.com/index_flash.php, is a disturbing documentary that depicts an organization that cannot fail. The Catholic church was organized to promote the christian religion and to perhaps improve the morals of society. What it has become is a highly immoral group of men who do horrible things and protect each other from prosecution. They continue to sell their product, christianity and morality, but they've been outed. For those who choose to open their eyes to reality, the Catholic church is truly a criminal organization.
Something happens to large organizations after they reach a certain level. Banks aren't allowed to fail. Corporations are protected. Think of them as groups of people who got together and started making rules, setting up legal protections and hiring people to advance the cause. Eventually, they reach a certain level. Success. They can't fail. At this point a certain type of person begins to emerge as management material. That person understands that the group must not fail. When enough of these types surround a corporation they begin to protect the organization from any harmful reality. If your church is employing pedophiles who are raping the children of the congregation, you must protect the church from the negative press. When your corporation is losing money, you get creative with the accounting.
Which, of course, brings me to the merger of Merck and Sherring Plough. Their products are meant to make our lives better through chemistry and biology. But they were already big. The problem was that they were not succeeding at making new drugs. They know all about the FDA and fill finish production lines. They are good at many things, but not at creative science. So they merge. They know how to merge. It involves paperwork and meetings. There will be plenty of paperwork and meetings surrounding the merger.
Where will the new improved drugs come from? When large companies fail to develop their pipeline they go to the smaller companies. They must then make decisions that involve millions of company dollars. Decision making becomes more and more beaurocratic. Distancing oneself from accountability while remaining close enough to claim a piece of possible success is an artform. Not a science. The new protectors of Merck/Sherring will have to be very careful yet find replacements for the billion dollar drugs that will be losing patent protection. What will they do? With 90 thousand employees they have plenty of humans working on their cause. What will they do?
Something happens to large organizations after they reach a certain level. Banks aren't allowed to fail. Corporations are protected. Think of them as groups of people who got together and started making rules, setting up legal protections and hiring people to advance the cause. Eventually, they reach a certain level. Success. They can't fail. At this point a certain type of person begins to emerge as management material. That person understands that the group must not fail. When enough of these types surround a corporation they begin to protect the organization from any harmful reality. If your church is employing pedophiles who are raping the children of the congregation, you must protect the church from the negative press. When your corporation is losing money, you get creative with the accounting.
Which, of course, brings me to the merger of Merck and Sherring Plough. Their products are meant to make our lives better through chemistry and biology. But they were already big. The problem was that they were not succeeding at making new drugs. They know all about the FDA and fill finish production lines. They are good at many things, but not at creative science. So they merge. They know how to merge. It involves paperwork and meetings. There will be plenty of paperwork and meetings surrounding the merger.
Where will the new improved drugs come from? When large companies fail to develop their pipeline they go to the smaller companies. They must then make decisions that involve millions of company dollars. Decision making becomes more and more beaurocratic. Distancing oneself from accountability while remaining close enough to claim a piece of possible success is an artform. Not a science. The new protectors of Merck/Sherring will have to be very careful yet find replacements for the billion dollar drugs that will be losing patent protection. What will they do? With 90 thousand employees they have plenty of humans working on their cause. What will they do?
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Optimism For the Seattle Cargo Cult Airport
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008667376_biotech25.html
"I'm fairly optimistic that this year will see good things for the industry," said ZymoGenetics President Doug Williams.
"We have some great, great research institutions here," said Chris Rivera, the new president of the Washington Biotechnology and Biomedical Association.
Next year at this time I will try and revisit this article. The CCS is not optimistic. It's not about the money. It's about things like RNAi and PhDs trying to be businessmen. It's about the product. In other words, the airplanes. Are they coming in 2009?
"I'm fairly optimistic that this year will see good things for the industry," said ZymoGenetics President Doug Williams.
"We have some great, great research institutions here," said Chris Rivera, the new president of the Washington Biotechnology and Biomedical Association.
Next year at this time I will try and revisit this article. The CCS is not optimistic. It's not about the money. It's about things like RNAi and PhDs trying to be businessmen. It's about the product. In other words, the airplanes. Are they coming in 2009?
Is It Over Yet?
MDRNA Cuts Executive Pay, Freezes Salaries as Cash Runs Out
Luke Timmerman 1/23/09
MDRNA is running out of cash, and is drastically cutting down payroll expenses, according to a source close to the situation. The Bothell, WA-based biotech company (NASDAQ: MRNA) has asked executives to work for no pay, and has frozen employee salaries at $1,250 for the final two weeks of January, according to the source.
Matt Haines, a spokesman for MDRNA, said the company hasn’t done any layoffs, although he declined to comment on specifics about any payroll cuts. “As a public company, we cannot get into details of any cost-cutting we are taking at MDRNA,” Haines said in a voice message.
The company, formerly known as Nastech Pharmaceutical, has been trying to reinvent itself over the past year from a company that specialized in nasal delivery of existing drugs into one that develops new medicines that work via RNA interference, or silencing problematic genes. The company changed its name in June to MDRNA, removed CEO Steven Quay from the top job, and replaced him with Michael French.
The new boss has a track record in RNAi, as a former senior vice president of corporate development at Sirna Therapeutics, a San Francisco RNAi drug developer that was sold to Merck for more than $1.1 billion in October 2006. Still, he joined MDRNA when its work was at the very early stages of development and would require significant capital investment to create something of more value. MDRNA said it has 4 issued patents on RNAi technology, and has 304 pending applications. None of its RNAi work has yet advanced into clinical trials, leaving it behind leaders in the sector like Cambridge, MA-based Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.
MDRNA’s effort has also been plagued by its rapidly dwindling cash reserves. The company slashed 23 jobs in August, mostly among people from the nasal delivery business, leaving it with 58 employees at the end of September. But the cuts may have been too little, too late. The company had just $10.9 million in cash and investments left at the end of September, down from more than $41 million when it started the year. At the end of September, MDRNA’s last formal financial update to investors, the company said it had just enough cash to last “into the first quarter of 2009.” Since then, the company has been notified that it is in jeopardy of having its ticker symbol de-listed from the NASDAQ. The company’s stock traded today as low as 25 cents, with a market valuation of just $8 million. It hasn’t announced any new round of investment.
MDRNA in its various forms has been in business since 1983, and never developed a successful marketed product to push it consistently into the black. The company has run up an accumulated deficit of more than $241 million from its beginning through the end of September 2008, according to its most recent quarterly report. When French was hired, his starting base compensation was set at $340,000, and he was given 1.26 million company stock options, according to a regulatory filing.
Luke Timmerman 1/23/09
MDRNA is running out of cash, and is drastically cutting down payroll expenses, according to a source close to the situation. The Bothell, WA-based biotech company (NASDAQ: MRNA) has asked executives to work for no pay, and has frozen employee salaries at $1,250 for the final two weeks of January, according to the source.
Matt Haines, a spokesman for MDRNA, said the company hasn’t done any layoffs, although he declined to comment on specifics about any payroll cuts. “As a public company, we cannot get into details of any cost-cutting we are taking at MDRNA,” Haines said in a voice message.
The company, formerly known as Nastech Pharmaceutical, has been trying to reinvent itself over the past year from a company that specialized in nasal delivery of existing drugs into one that develops new medicines that work via RNA interference, or silencing problematic genes. The company changed its name in June to MDRNA, removed CEO Steven Quay from the top job, and replaced him with Michael French.
The new boss has a track record in RNAi, as a former senior vice president of corporate development at Sirna Therapeutics, a San Francisco RNAi drug developer that was sold to Merck for more than $1.1 billion in October 2006. Still, he joined MDRNA when its work was at the very early stages of development and would require significant capital investment to create something of more value. MDRNA said it has 4 issued patents on RNAi technology, and has 304 pending applications. None of its RNAi work has yet advanced into clinical trials, leaving it behind leaders in the sector like Cambridge, MA-based Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.
MDRNA’s effort has also been plagued by its rapidly dwindling cash reserves. The company slashed 23 jobs in August, mostly among people from the nasal delivery business, leaving it with 58 employees at the end of September. But the cuts may have been too little, too late. The company had just $10.9 million in cash and investments left at the end of September, down from more than $41 million when it started the year. At the end of September, MDRNA’s last formal financial update to investors, the company said it had just enough cash to last “into the first quarter of 2009.” Since then, the company has been notified that it is in jeopardy of having its ticker symbol de-listed from the NASDAQ. The company’s stock traded today as low as 25 cents, with a market valuation of just $8 million. It hasn’t announced any new round of investment.
MDRNA in its various forms has been in business since 1983, and never developed a successful marketed product to push it consistently into the black. The company has run up an accumulated deficit of more than $241 million from its beginning through the end of September 2008, according to its most recent quarterly report. When French was hired, his starting base compensation was set at $340,000, and he was given 1.26 million company stock options, according to a regulatory filing.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Is Vytorin a Failure?
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1703827,00.html
If one had read Gary Taubes' 'Good Calorie Bad Calorie' they would not have been surprised by the results from Vytorins ENHANCE study. To the Cargo Cult Scientist, statins represent the holy grail of our current state of medical research. Statins are the biggest money makers in the industry. And they don't save lives. Diet and exercise are the best answer but you can't sell them in a pill. One study after another proves that they are not the answer. But we must have an answer. And the FDA knows what that answer must be: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h6pzZiObVnCNNNsI0McxoMN8WZVAD95J8NK80
If one had read Gary Taubes' 'Good Calorie Bad Calorie' they would not have been surprised by the results from Vytorins ENHANCE study. To the Cargo Cult Scientist, statins represent the holy grail of our current state of medical research. Statins are the biggest money makers in the industry. And they don't save lives. Diet and exercise are the best answer but you can't sell them in a pill. One study after another proves that they are not the answer. But we must have an answer. And the FDA knows what that answer must be: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h6pzZiObVnCNNNsI0McxoMN8WZVAD95J8NK80
Goodbye Seattle PI
While we expect the loss of Biotech companies we do not enjoy seeing honest people lose their livelihood. We do get pleasure when people like James Bianco and Steve Quay are acknowledged as Cargo Cult leaders. They love money and they love power. Science is a bunch of words to them. The words can be used to extract money from investors. That money is used to create companies that create powerful positions.
Another group of people who live by their words are the fine journalists at the Seattle PI. They make less than 100K per year. They put out a product everyday. When they make a mistake they have to retract what they said. They also serve as a watchdog against government and corporate America. Sadly they are going to be silenced.http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/395463_newspapersale10.html
In terms of the Cargo Cult world, the newspapers report on the airport. Not just the promises, but the reality of what is happening out there on the runways. They look up to the skies 24 hours a day. Each day they report, " no airplanes have been spotted". Seattle will have only one newspaper. A day will come when a major US city will have no local newspaper. That will be the day when local government becomes as free as a biotech company to report it's own news.
Another group of people who live by their words are the fine journalists at the Seattle PI. They make less than 100K per year. They put out a product everyday. When they make a mistake they have to retract what they said. They also serve as a watchdog against government and corporate America. Sadly they are going to be silenced.http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/395463_newspapersale10.html
In terms of the Cargo Cult world, the newspapers report on the airport. Not just the promises, but the reality of what is happening out there on the runways. They look up to the skies 24 hours a day. Each day they report, " no airplanes have been spotted". Seattle will have only one newspaper. A day will come when a major US city will have no local newspaper. That will be the day when local government becomes as free as a biotech company to report it's own news.
Fires Are Burning Out
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sundaybuzz/2008613921_sundaybuzz11.html
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/394854_northstar06.html
Note the ending of the first article and how it leads into the second.
...an investment fund with major stock ownership, which in December wrote to Northstar board members: "It would seem that some of you remain content to pay yourselves salaries from cash that belongs to stockholders while contributing nothing of any positive value in return."
With Cell Therapeutics, which has few, if any, institutional shareholders left since it became a penny stock, it's unlikely there's anyone to write that kind of letter.
Zing!
Analysts predict that Biotech will lose a third of its publicly traded companies. One third! They're on to us.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/394854_northstar06.html
Note the ending of the first article and how it leads into the second.
...an investment fund with major stock ownership, which in December wrote to Northstar board members: "It would seem that some of you remain content to pay yourselves salaries from cash that belongs to stockholders while contributing nothing of any positive value in return."
With Cell Therapeutics, which has few, if any, institutional shareholders left since it became a penny stock, it's unlikely there's anyone to write that kind of letter.
Zing!
Analysts predict that Biotech will lose a third of its publicly traded companies. One third! They're on to us.
Monday, January 05, 2009
Rosetta
I missed the demise of Rosetta out here in Seattle. Merck bought this company back in 2001 for 630 million dollars. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/22771_rosetta12.shtml
Things were going well in 20004. http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20040325&slug=rosetta25
Then they discontinued the project last October. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008300061_rosetta23.html
It's a classic Cargo Cult scenario. We have a technology that will change the way drugs are discovered. Where are the drugs? Who is talking about why Rosetta failed to do what it promised? Only the Cargo Cult Scientist is wondering why computer programmers couldn't turn human speculations (medical research) into the fountain of youth. Too much BS was piled too high. So long Rosetta. I know you'll get an office or two in New Jersey but you won't produce any drugs. Silly.
Things were going well in 20004. http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20040325&slug=rosetta25
Then they discontinued the project last October. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008300061_rosetta23.html
It's a classic Cargo Cult scenario. We have a technology that will change the way drugs are discovered. Where are the drugs? Who is talking about why Rosetta failed to do what it promised? Only the Cargo Cult Scientist is wondering why computer programmers couldn't turn human speculations (medical research) into the fountain of youth. Too much BS was piled too high. So long Rosetta. I know you'll get an office or two in New Jersey but you won't produce any drugs. Silly.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
2009 Predictions
There are not many companies left in Seattle. There are more than the CCS is aware of but many of the big players went down or were at least knocked down a peg last year. 2007 was already covered at the beginning of 2008. Dismal. But what about the upcoming year? I know that people will have a bias that the CCS is optimistic about the upcoming year of scientific discovery among the scientists of Biotech. But wait, I've got to admit that I can be a little negative from time to time. For example:
Gilead is expanding and hiring: http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/thelifesciencesblog/archives/141124.asp
I predict they will grow in the most foolish ways imaginable. They have the brass from the ruins of Corus and they have no idea what they are doing. They do have a lot of money to spend however and they will do so for the sole purpose of creating a Cargo Cult Airport. It will be a nice facility with lots of promises presented on all of the lastest equipment available from Dell and software from Microsoft.
But I can also be positive. For example:
Amgen will rebound. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/xconomy/392982_xconomy7075.html
It's an untestable osteoporesis drug. No harm means no foul. Lots of money will be handed over and the leadership will go back to spending the profits on their own Cargo Cult airports within the organization. Their RNAi projects will quietly start to fade and antibody work will be pumped up using new technologies bought from smaller companies.
I'm not an insider. I'll find out what is going on nonetheless. It makes life in the biz much more interesting.
Gilead is expanding and hiring: http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/thelifesciencesblog/archives/141124.asp
I predict they will grow in the most foolish ways imaginable. They have the brass from the ruins of Corus and they have no idea what they are doing. They do have a lot of money to spend however and they will do so for the sole purpose of creating a Cargo Cult Airport. It will be a nice facility with lots of promises presented on all of the lastest equipment available from Dell and software from Microsoft.
But I can also be positive. For example:
Amgen will rebound. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/xconomy/392982_xconomy7075.html
It's an untestable osteoporesis drug. No harm means no foul. Lots of money will be handed over and the leadership will go back to spending the profits on their own Cargo Cult airports within the organization. Their RNAi projects will quietly start to fade and antibody work will be pumped up using new technologies bought from smaller companies.
I'm not an insider. I'll find out what is going on nonetheless. It makes life in the biz much more interesting.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
How Can You Lose?
"Harry is an experienced portfolio manager who has a proven track record of success."
So says Adam Banker, a spokesman for Fidelity Investments. Harry Lange runs Fidelity Investments' Magellan Fund. The Magellan Fund has seen assets decline 83 percent since reaching a peak eight years ago. The 18.6 billion dollar fund declined 52 percent this year, trailing 99 percent of competing funds.
Somebody had to finish towards rock bottom. It makes you wonder what funds trailed the Magellan Fund. Did their managers also have a proven track record of success?
My interest in the financial worlds folly is directly tied to Cargo Cult philosophy. Clearly the world has seen behind the Wizard of Ozs' curtain. They didn't see failure coming anymore than they saw success in the past. These are the same people who invest in Biotech. Someone points out that RNAi is a hot investment because SIRNA sold for over a billion dollars. Fund managers get their clients checkbooks out and go looking for RNAi companies. Meanwhile it is no certainty that any of these people know what RNA is, let alone RNAi.
I'll end with a funny story about a biotech investor. This person was looking for investments in a hot biotech field he had just heard about. He called the investor relations department. A very nice lady who had just started in the department answered the phone. She had just been promoted up from her previous position as receptionist. Before that she spent 7 years as a secretary at the local high school. The investor spoke authoritatively to the nice lady. "Yes, can you tell me if you have any research taking place involving monoclonal antibiotics?"
So says Adam Banker, a spokesman for Fidelity Investments. Harry Lange runs Fidelity Investments' Magellan Fund. The Magellan Fund has seen assets decline 83 percent since reaching a peak eight years ago. The 18.6 billion dollar fund declined 52 percent this year, trailing 99 percent of competing funds.
Somebody had to finish towards rock bottom. It makes you wonder what funds trailed the Magellan Fund. Did their managers also have a proven track record of success?
My interest in the financial worlds folly is directly tied to Cargo Cult philosophy. Clearly the world has seen behind the Wizard of Ozs' curtain. They didn't see failure coming anymore than they saw success in the past. These are the same people who invest in Biotech. Someone points out that RNAi is a hot investment because SIRNA sold for over a billion dollars. Fund managers get their clients checkbooks out and go looking for RNAi companies. Meanwhile it is no certainty that any of these people know what RNA is, let alone RNAi.
I'll end with a funny story about a biotech investor. This person was looking for investments in a hot biotech field he had just heard about. He called the investor relations department. A very nice lady who had just started in the department answered the phone. She had just been promoted up from her previous position as receptionist. Before that she spent 7 years as a secretary at the local high school. The investor spoke authoritatively to the nice lady. "Yes, can you tell me if you have any research taking place involving monoclonal antibiotics?"
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Wallstreet Logic and Biotech
Why is it that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson didn't originally ask for 1.5 billion dollars for his bailout plan? The original amount of 700 billion was a shock. The 800 billion seemed to be less appalling. Not only is it 100 billion dollars more, it comes right on the heals of the 700 billion. The most likely answer is that Paulson knew he needed a blank check but knew better than to ask for one. So he went about it this way. Creating an illusion of stability is the plan. Investors will buy into illusions.
This is clearly a Cargo Cult approach. We've noticed that during more prosperous times our bankers were flush with cash. Now they are all facing annihilation. If we slather them with cash then they will appear to be well again. But what about the fact that they ran out of that cash? Will they run out again?
Biotech financing works this way as well. We don't know how much we'll need. Give us millions and we'll get started. Give us more millions and we'll keep up the good work. And just keep on giving until we succeed. But we rarely succeed. Now we are watching our government give billions to individuals who also have a promise.
Another issue is whether or not the meltdown is really bad for us. Gas is now 1.85 per gallon. Real estate is dropping which is bad for the profits I would have needed to make a downpayment on the next place. But I now get to select from a whole new set of properties for my next place. I'll have less to put down but I won't need as much. It appears that our economy is merely correcting for a decade or more of inflation.
If 100 people live on an island with only enough food to comfortably feed 100 people then you have to figure out how to ration the daily intake. If you do it wrong then some will have too much and some will have too little. It takes a special kind of person to admit that they are getting more than their share. They must also decide who gets their extra food. What is needed is a governing body on this island that knows how to ration. Some will gather the food, some will prepare the food and some will search for new sources. All will need food. The important thing for the governing body is to not make any one group of the team so important that another is eliminated.
The main point today is that money fuels wallstreet and it fuels biotech. It's great when you have it but humiliating when it's gone. So somewhere along the way to failure we have to take a look at how effectively were using our limited resource, money. Once again... Dr. Richard Feynman:
"So we really ought to look into theories that don't work, and science that isn't science."
And I might add, look into it sooner than later.
This is clearly a Cargo Cult approach. We've noticed that during more prosperous times our bankers were flush with cash. Now they are all facing annihilation. If we slather them with cash then they will appear to be well again. But what about the fact that they ran out of that cash? Will they run out again?
Biotech financing works this way as well. We don't know how much we'll need. Give us millions and we'll get started. Give us more millions and we'll keep up the good work. And just keep on giving until we succeed. But we rarely succeed. Now we are watching our government give billions to individuals who also have a promise.
Another issue is whether or not the meltdown is really bad for us. Gas is now 1.85 per gallon. Real estate is dropping which is bad for the profits I would have needed to make a downpayment on the next place. But I now get to select from a whole new set of properties for my next place. I'll have less to put down but I won't need as much. It appears that our economy is merely correcting for a decade or more of inflation.
If 100 people live on an island with only enough food to comfortably feed 100 people then you have to figure out how to ration the daily intake. If you do it wrong then some will have too much and some will have too little. It takes a special kind of person to admit that they are getting more than their share. They must also decide who gets their extra food. What is needed is a governing body on this island that knows how to ration. Some will gather the food, some will prepare the food and some will search for new sources. All will need food. The important thing for the governing body is to not make any one group of the team so important that another is eliminated.
The main point today is that money fuels wallstreet and it fuels biotech. It's great when you have it but humiliating when it's gone. So somewhere along the way to failure we have to take a look at how effectively were using our limited resource, money. Once again... Dr. Richard Feynman:
"So we really ought to look into theories that don't work, and science that isn't science."
And I might add, look into it sooner than later.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
DOH!!!
http://health.msn.com/health-topics/colon-cancer/articlepage.aspx?cp-documentid=100220689
Chaulk up another swing-and-a-miss for medical science.
Chaulk up another swing-and-a-miss for medical science.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Back to RNAi
We recently put the flame of Nastech out. Tight junction technology didn't work!!! Nastech lit the side of our runway for many years. Then one day it ended. The name was changed, the CEO was replaced and the stock became a steal at 15 cents a share. The name of the company was changed to MDRNA, as in RNAi. The new CEO was in fact the old CEO of SIRNA, as in siRNA. The latest addition to the MDRNA staff is the old CSO of SIRNA. SIRNA was sold for 1.1 billion dollars to Merck. Can lightening strike twice?
The first question is, what has Merck done with their aquisition of SIRNA? Any regrets? 1.1 billion is a lot of money. One might hope to make that kind of money from an approved product. Merck did not buy an approved product. The second question is, what does MDRNAs new brain trust plan to do with the 12 million bucks left behind by Nastech? The SIRNA patents are in the hands of Merck leaving only the brain power behind SIRNA and the power of RNAi.
The brains behind this new flame along our runway have a major obstacle. Can they stay in business long enough to get a drug approved? The villagers must be very enthusiastic, but will they hand over their money? If not this latest RNAi project will not get off the ground. If they get funds they will be free to conduct the science. We are watching.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
A Villager Speaks Up
One of the most outspoken villager, who looks up daily to spot the cargo planes, has detected a way to spot a false profit: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10443120/1/dont-get-burned-by-the-next-cell-genesys.html?puc=googlefi&cm_ven=GOOGLEFI&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Mr Feuerstein makes a living telling the other villagers, who look to the sky, what it is they should expect to see any day now. But he speaks from the investment perspective. The science is something he peppers into his columns. He doesn't know. It would be interesting to see an accounting of his ability to predict good from bad investments. Are his predictions best measured by his understanding of the science? Would a random stock pick make more or less?
Keep looking up Mr. Feuerstein.
Once again, Feynman; "So they've arranged to imitate things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make awooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his headlike headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas--he's the controller--and they wait for the airplanes to land."
I will promote Feuerstain to control tower supervisor.
Mr Feuerstein makes a living telling the other villagers, who look to the sky, what it is they should expect to see any day now. But he speaks from the investment perspective. The science is something he peppers into his columns. He doesn't know. It would be interesting to see an accounting of his ability to predict good from bad investments. Are his predictions best measured by his understanding of the science? Would a random stock pick make more or less?
Keep looking up Mr. Feuerstein.
Once again, Feynman; "So they've arranged to imitate things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make awooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his headlike headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas--he's the controller--and they wait for the airplanes to land."
I will promote Feuerstain to control tower supervisor.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
A Cancer in the Health Care System
What if there were doctors for the health care industry. A company like Pfizer goes to the doctors office compaining of a weakness in sales and a bleak outlook for the future of their research efforts. The doctor says, "take off your marketing department please."
Pfizer: Things like this keep happening to us:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g--AosBLRVpNsiYYtzTePEXOUzoQD93S9NGG0
Doctor: Hmm. I see you have an honesty problem.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/08/health/research/08drug.html
Pfizer: Well, we have to make money.
We continue to be shocked at the lack of outrage against these common practices. Which executives made the decisions that led to the conclusions in the second article? What about repeating such dishonesty over and over and occasionally getting caught? The industry has a disease. It is incapable of being honest when negative data presents itself. What is the cure?
Pfizer: Things like this keep happening to us:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g--AosBLRVpNsiYYtzTePEXOUzoQD93S9NGG0
Doctor: Hmm. I see you have an honesty problem.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/08/health/research/08drug.html
Pfizer: Well, we have to make money.
We continue to be shocked at the lack of outrage against these common practices. Which executives made the decisions that led to the conclusions in the second article? What about repeating such dishonesty over and over and occasionally getting caught? The industry has a disease. It is incapable of being honest when negative data presents itself. What is the cure?
Monday, October 06, 2008
Cargo Cult Scientist Gets Snubbed
The Nobel Prize committee for medicine has failed to honor Dr. Robert Gallo for his contributions to the HIV/AIDS hypothesis. While it's true that he appropriated the HIV virus from Luc Montagnier, he did convince the masses that this was the cause of HIV. A true Cargo Cult Scientist does not succeed by solving tough questions. He succeeds by convincing people that he knows how to make the airplanes come from the sky. The better the Cargo Cult Scientist the longer he can keep the masses looking up and waiting. The message from Stockholm today seems to say that it was not Dr. Gallo who started us all looking up.
Now would be a good time for the national media to explain why Dr. Gallo was snubbed. He was snubbed because he is a dishonest person. Many people know this yet he continues to work in science. Dr. Prusiner, the 1997 winner of the prize put it this way: http://aidscience.org/science/298(5599)1726b.html.
There are many prizes for the many promises.
Now would be a good time for the national media to explain why Dr. Gallo was snubbed. He was snubbed because he is a dishonest person. Many people know this yet he continues to work in science. Dr. Prusiner, the 1997 winner of the prize put it this way: http://aidscience.org/science/298(5599)1726b.html.
There are many prizes for the many promises.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Have a Plan
Lately I've been thinking about the way in which ideas become accepted. The Cargo Cult natives saw the cargo emerging from the big metal birds and a desired outcome was born. Now all they needed was a plan. They watched the Allied forces carefully and began piecing together their plan. The desired outcome however was the most important piece of the plan. The ideas of how to acheive the outcome took a back seat while the leaders dreamed of the cargo.
We recently experienced the Republican and Democratic national conventions. The mission was to convince the majority of America that one party will provide a better future than the other. The melt down of wall street however is an excellent example of our political and corporate leaders ability to predict and shape the future. Our government is going to put up 700 billion dollars (this week!) to "fix" the problem.
But what about 2 weeks ago? Was anyone preparing for the bailout? What was being done 2 months ago? When did this government bailout start to take shape? We now have our desired outcome. We want the economy to be strong. That is our cargo. What is our plan? Bail out the banks so they can go back to making loans.
How did the ideas that went into the bail out plan gain acceptance?
The 700 billion dollar bailout does not guarentee success. It is a plan however. For the politicians, a plan is all that is needed. Even if the plans spells the end to the great American era. It doesn't occur to the Cargo Cults that there plan is not working. Simply carrying out any plan gives off the impression that work is being done.
Only a proper scientific method will bring about a proper change. Compare the actual outcome to the desired outcome. The ideas that were accepted may have lead you astray.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Psychology of RNAi
This summers reading brought me in contact with a most beautiful book on the subject of randomness. The book is called "The Black Swan". In it you will find heretical discussions such as, "Academic success is partly (but significantly) a lottery. It's easy to test the effect of reputation. One way would be to find papers that were written by famous scientists, had their authors identities changed by mistake and got rejected. You could verify how many of these rejections were subsequently overturned after the true identities of the authors were established."
The painful truth about science is that it is run on the most non-scientific means of judging a persons work. Reputations rule. Good solid science will do you no good if you cannot convince the powers that be that they have missed something. This is not an easy task due to the arrogance of power. If you dare challenge someone like a David Baltimore or Craig Mello you had better have a powerful group of cohorts willing to back you in your battle.
The CCS knows this and is under no delusions that he is actually battling the powers that be. This is rather an exercise in psychology. What does any person have to do to affectively be heard? Write a blog? Ha! Have a great idea? Ha again. Great ideas can have just as hard of a time being sold as bad ones. In fact, the scientific merits of an idea is not as important as its presentation. Who is presenting the idea. Are they confident? Is the idea presented in peer reviewed journals, scientific meetings or books? Does the idea fly in the face of current thinking?
Billions of dollars have been spent and many more are on their way out the door for RNAi to be used as a drug. Beyond that, RNAi has been the bane of many a research associate whose job it is to use RNAi to knock out genes. It's like using a feather to hammer nails. But no one is going to listen to a guy who wears a white lab coat daily. No one is going to publish a paper stating that RNAi has yet again failed to produce knockout data. The idea that it doesn't work is no longer being accepted. Like gene therapy however, it will cease to impress and thus be put on the back burner. One day the real story behind what happened in the early studies of RNAi will be known. Until then we must accept that we are in the middle of a common situation in the history of human reasoning. We are convinced that we know the truth. We no longer require evidence to the contrary. Yet the planes are not landing.
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